000 AXNT20 KNHC 142251 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun May 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2140 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W-52W from 02N to 13N and is moving westward around 15 kt. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with the wave from 00N to 08.5N between 51W and 58W. Precipitable water products indicate that the majority of moisture with this wave is E of the wave axis. The wave is forecast to approach the Windward Islands early Mon, and move across the eastern Caribbean from Mon and through Tue. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic from the coastal border of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 10.5N15W, and extends southwest to 06.5N18W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ continues to 03N30W and to 03.5N38W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 01W and 15W, and near the ITCZ from 01.5N to 06N between 21W and 32W, and from 03.5N to 07N between 34W and 46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak 1017 mb high pressure center that is analyzed over the N central Gulf near 27N92W is maintaining rather stable and tranquil conditions throughout the basin. The wind flow pattern is characterized by light to gentle anticyclonic blow across the basin. Seas range 1 to 3 ft across the basin, except 3 to 4 ft W of 92W. Ongoing agricultural fires across Mexico are producing some areas of slight to moderate haze across W and SW portions of the basin. For the forecast, the high pressure over the area will continue to produce a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through the period. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse offshore the N and W coasts of the Yucatan peninsula each night through Wed night, with the exception of fresh to strong winds tonight. CARIBBEAN SEA... A rather broad and deep layer trough extends across the central Gulf of Mexico and over the western Caribbean west of 80W. At the surface, a trough is analyzed from western Cuba near 22N81W to 12N82W. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate isolated strong convection offshore of the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica to 80W, while scattered moderate convection is seen S of 12.5N near the coasts of Panama and Colombia. A morning scatterometer pass measured fresh trades over the central and eastern Caribbean, east of 74W between the surface trough and building high pressure in the Atlantic, and are assumed to continue E of 78W this evening. Elsewhere across the basin, light to gentle NE to E winds prevail. Seas are 6 to 8 ft and occasionally 9 ft across the central and eastern Caribbean east of 80W, especially within the areas of strongest winds. Elsewhere, seas are 3 to 5 ft, except for lower wave heights of 2 to 4 ft north of 19N and west of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure building westward north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trades across the eastern and central Caribbean through Sun night. Thereafter, mainly fresh trade winds are expected in the Colombia basin and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Wed. A tropical wave is forecast to approach the Windward Islands early on Mon, and move across the eastern Caribbean from Mon and through Tue. Moisture accompanying this wave is expected to increase the chances for showers in the eastern Caribbean through at least Tue night. Looking ahead, broad low pressure may develop across the western Caribbean late in the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid to upper-level low is noted just offshore the southeastern U.S. and extends across the Bahamas, Cuba and over the western Caribbean Sea. Satellite imagery reveals scattered moderate isolated strong convection occurring along and E of the mid to upper-level low, over western parts of the area north of 20N between 69W-78W, including most of the Bahama Islands. Further east, a high pressure ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure center near 32N60W controls the wind flow pattern across the central and eastern Atlantic areas. Satellite derived winds depict generally moderate to fresh NE to E trades from 06N to 22N and SW to W winds north of 30N between 30W to 45W that is ahead of a weakening cold front that extends from 35N30W to 30N47W. Seas range from 6 to 8 ft south of 20N between 35W and 61W and also from 18N to 31N between 61W and 77W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, seas range from 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge, anchored by a high pressure center located over the NE corner of the forecast area will dominate the region through Mon. Then, the high pressure will shift eastward through as a cold front approaches the waters off NE Florida on Tue. The northern part of the cold front is expected to reach the northeast part of the area Wed and Wed night, while its remainder becomes stationary over the northern forecast waters. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will precede the front. Fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds within 120 nm north of Hispaniola will persist through Mon night. $$ Stripling