000 AXNT20 KNHC 141020 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat May 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 50W from 02N to 14N moving westward around 20 kt. The CIMSS MIMIC satellite derived TPW (Total Precipitable Water) depicts a pool of deep moisture trailing the wave to near 34W. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection east of the wave axis to 40W from 07N to 09N, and within 150 nm west of the wave axis from 05N to 08N. The wave is forecast to approach the Windward Islands early Mon, and move across the eastern Caribbean from Mon and through Tue. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 11N15W, and extends southwestward to 06N17W and to 04N20W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02N30W and to 01N42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 21W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 16W-19W. GULF OF MEXICO... The wind flow pattern across the Gulf is being driven by a weak 1015 mb high pressure center that is analyzed over the central Gulf near 26N90W. This feature is maintaining rather stable and tranquil conditions throughout the basin. Overnight ASCAT data passes depict gentle to moderate east-southeast winds west of 90W, except for mainly fresh northeast to east winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to light northeast to east winds are east of 90W, except for light west winds north of 28N. Wave heights are in the 2-4 ft range, except for slighter higher wave heights of 3-5 ft in the eastern Bay of Campeche. It is possible that hazy skies may be in the west central and SW Gulf of Mexico due to ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico. For the forecast, the high pressure over the area will continue to produce a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through the period. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse offshore the N and W coasts of the Yucatan peninsula each night through Wed night, with the exception of fresh to strong winds tonight. CARIBBEAN SEA... A rather broad deep layer trough is over the western Caribbean west of 80W. At the surface, a trough is along 81W north of 13N to across central Cuba and to the Straits of Florida near 24N81W. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection east of the surface trough to 74W and from 13N to 16N. Overnight ASCAT data over this area indicated strong to near gale-force winds with this convection. Broken to overcast multilayer clouds, with embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over rest of central Caribbean north of 13N between 70W-74W. The ASCAT data indicated moderate to fresh trades elsewhere east of 79W, and gentle trades west of 79W. Wave heights are in the 7-9 ft range are in the south-central Caribbean, especially within the area of the numerous moderate to strong convection. Wave heights elsewhere are 6-8 ft north of 15N between 72W-80W, 5-7 ft elsewhere east of 72W, 3-6 ft west of 80W except for lower wave heights of 2-4 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, N of 18N west of 85W and also south of 11N west 80W. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure building westward north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trades across the eastern and central Caribbean through Sun night. Thereafter, mainly fresh trade winds are expected in the Colombia basin and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Wed. Moisture associated with a tropical wave, currently located east of the forecast waters near 50W is forecast to approach the Windward Islands early on Mon, and move across the eastern Caribbean from Mon and through Tue. Moisture accompanying with this wave is expected to increase the chances for showers in the eastern Caribbean through at least Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid to upper-level low is noted just offshore the southeastern U.S. Its associated trough extends south-southwestward to western Cuba and to the western Caribbean Sea. A weak surface low of 1015 mb is offshore the southern Georgia coast near 31N80W. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection moving in a general northeastward motion over western part of the area south of 27N and between 70W-78W, including most of the Bahama Islands. Similar convection is over the northern waters north of 29N between 71W-75W, and also presently developing within 90 nm of the surface low. East of the mid to upper-level trough, a broad mid to upper anticyclone is evident east to 55W. At the surface, high pressure, anchored by a 1027 mb high center that is about 270 nm east of Bermuda, controls the wind flow pattern across the central and eastern Atlantic areas. Overnight ASCAT data passes revealed generally moderate to fresh northeast to east trades from 07N to 21N east of 58W, and west of 58W to 77W. A weak pressure patten west of 77W is allowing for light southeast to south winds over that part of the area. Light to gentle trades are south of 07N east of 55W. Wave heights range from 7-8 ft from 11N to 20N between 52W-62W, also from 20N to 26N between 60W-65W and from 06N to 14N between 47W-50W. Wave heights range from 6-7 ft from the Cabo Verde Islands to 20N and between the Cabo Verde Islands and 55W. The wave heights range from 4-6 ft in the remainder of the Atlantic. For the forecast, the high pressure over the area will shift eastward through early next week as a cold front approaches the waters northeast of northern Florida. The northern part of the cold front is expected to reach the northeast part of the area Wed and Wed night, while its remainder becomes stationary over the north-central and northwest forecast waters. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will precede the front. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds within 120 nm north of Hispaniola will change little through Sun night. $$ Aguirre