000 AXNT20 KNHC 140556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat May 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W, from 13N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 420 nm to the west of the tropical wave, and within 270 nm to the east of the tropical wave, from 04N to 09N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 11N15W, to 06N17W and 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, to 02N30W and 01N42W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally strong, are from 10N southward from 42W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1015 mb high pressure center is near 26N90W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle winds are in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate winds are in the western half of Gulf of Mexico. The wave heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet. It is possible that hazy conditions may be in the west central and SW Gulf of Mexico, due to ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico. High pressure over the area will continue to produce a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through the period. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse offshore the N and W coasts of the Yucatan peninsula each night through Wed night, with the exception of fresh to strong winds on Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad deep layer cyclonic wind flow is in the NW Caribbean Sea, and in much of Central America. A surface trough is along 80W/81W from 13N to 23N in Cuba. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 260 nm to the east of the surface trough from 13N to 14N. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are between 70W and 84W. Strong to near gale-force winds are from 150 nm to 240 nm to the east of the surface trough from 13N to 16N. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere between 75W and 84W. Gentle to moderate winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The wave heights range: from 7 feet to 10 feet in the central one-third of the area; from 5 feet to 7 feet in the eastern one-third of the area; from 2 feet to 3 feet in the SW corner; and from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. Fresh easterly winds are in the eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Atlantic Ocean high pressure, building westward north of the Caribbean Sea, will support fresh to strong trades across the eastern and central Caribbean through Sat. Thereafter, mainly fresh trade winds are expected in the Colombia basin and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Wed. Moisture associated with a tropical wave, currently located well east of the forecast waters near 46W, may reach the Windward Islands on Mon, increasing the chances for showers in the eastern Caribbean through at least Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the Atlantic Ocean from 65W westward. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is in the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward from 60W eastward, and from 60W westward. A surface ridge extends from the Canary Islands to 25N40W 26N54W , to a 1028 mb high pressure center that is near 35N61W. Strong SE winds are within 100 nm to the north of the Dominican Republic between 69W and 71W. Some strong SE winds are from 25N to 30N between 68W and 75W. Fresh winds are: from 18N to 22N from 20W eastward;from 15N to 21N between 24W and 31W; from 07N to 21N between 47W and 56W; and in general from 18N northward between 63W and 75W. Moderate winds or slower are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. The wave heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet: from 10N to 20N between 52W and 60W; from 20N to 26N between 60W and 65W; and from 06N to 14N between 47W and 50W. The wave heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet from the Cabo Verde Islands to 20N between the Cabo Verde Islands and 27W. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. High pressure ridging is over the forecast area east of the Bahamas, while a weak pattern is west of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds are present from 20N to 27N between 68W and the Bahamas. These winds will diminish by early Sat evening. The high pressure over the area will shift eastward through early next week as a cold front approaches the waters northeast of northern Florida. The northern part of the cold front is expected to reach the northeast part of the area Wed and Wed night, while its remainder becomes stationary over the north-central and northwest forecast waters. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will precede the front. $$ MT/JA