000 AXNT20 KNHC 132318 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri May 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 44W from 01N to 12N, moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Satellite imagery shows a broad area of scattered moderate convection associated with the wave from 04N to 08N between 35W to 45W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04N31W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1015 mb high center is analyzed near 26N90W. The associated broad surface anticyclone is resulting in a gentle to moderate wind flow pattern across the basin. Seas of 2 to 4 ft are found throughout the basin. Due to ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico, it is possible that hazy conditions may be in some areas of the west-central and southwestern Gulf. For the forecast, the high pressure over the area will continue to produce a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through the period. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse offshore the N and W coasts of the Yucatan peninsula each night through Wed night, with the exception of fresh to strong winds on Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A central Atlantic high pressure stretches southwestward to the northeastern Caribbean. The pressure difference between this high pressure and lower pressure over the rest of the Caribbean is allowing for fresh to strong trades to persist across the central and eastern Caribbean, mainly south of 18N and east of 79W. Seas in this area are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Water vapor imagery depicts a well pronounced mid and upper-level trough that extends from low pressure off the southeastern U.S. southwestward to western Caribbean and farther southwest to Honduras. A vigorous SW jet stream east of this trough is helping to sustain an area of moderate strong convection over the central Caribbean between 70W and 83W, including the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh trades prevail over the remainder of the basin with seas of 2 to 4 ft, mainly west of 79W, including the Gulf of Honduras area. Slighter higher wave heights of 3 to 5 ft are found north of 18N between 75W and 80W, and in the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure building westward north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trades across the eastern and central Caribbean through Sat. Thereafter, mainly fresh trade winds are expected in the Colombia basin and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Wed. Moisture associated with a tropical wave, currently located along 43W, may reach the Windward Islands on Mon, increasing the likelihood of showers. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. A 1015 mb surface low is centered near 32N80W. Scattered showers associated to this low are noted over the Florida peninsula and adjacent waters. A broad mid to upper-level trough stretches across the Florida peninsula to the western Caribbean Sea. Strong jet dynamics along the eastern periphery of this upper-level trough is supporting scattered moderate to strong convection from 20N to 31N between 66W to 76W. Similar activity is noted within the Windward Passage. A broad area of fresh to strong E to SE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft from 23N to 27N between 72W and 75W are associated with the strongest convective activity. Over the central Atlantic, high pressure associated with a 1030 mb high center north of the area near 35W61W is the main weather system driving the broad synoptic wind flow pattern across the remainder of the basin. Satellite derived winds and altimeter data reveal a wide area of moderate to fresh NE to E winds, mainly south of 21N along with seas of 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast, the low pressure just off the Georgia coast will continue to weaken while slowly moving inland tonight. High pressure located NE of Bermuda extends a ridge across the forecast region. The pressure gradient between these two systems will continue to support fresh to strong southerly winds across the western Atlantic through Sat. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow will prevail through at least Mon as a high pressure center settles over the NE corner of the forecast area. $$ ERA