000 AXNT20 KNHC 121746 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu May 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 36W from 01N to 13N. It is moving westward at 8 to 10 kt. This wave is denoted on GOES16 visible satellite imagery and in the CIRA precipitable water animation imagery. Scattered moderate convection associated with the wave is observed from 03.5N to 08N between 33W and 41W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and extends southwestward to 08N17W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to the ITCZ and continues to 05N22W and to 04N29W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 01N to 09N between 17W and 29W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high pressure center is analyzed over the north- central Gulf near 29N92W. This high pressure center is embedded within a broad area of high pressure that extends from the eastern U.S. seaboard southwestward to the Gulf. Associated anticyclonic flow throughout the Gulf consists of gentle to moderate NE to E winds east of 93W, including the Bay of Campeche, and SE to S winds west of 93W and north of 20N. Seas generally range from 2 to 4 ft across the basin. Hazy conditions are possible in the west-central and southwestern Gulf due to ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico. For the forecast, high pressure over the area will maintain a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through the period. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds in the eastern Gulf will diminish to gentle Thu night. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds will pulse offshore the the Yucatan peninsula tonight, becoming fresh east winds late Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the Atlantic across the far eastern edge of Cuba and into the Caribbean to near 18N81W. Atlantic high pressure stretches southwestward to just north of the northeastern Caribbean. The gradient between the high pressure and front is resulting in moderate to fresh east to southeast trades across the central and eastern Caribbean, generally west of 80W and south of the front. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northeast to east trades prevail. Seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted in a recent Altimeter pass across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea, mainly north of 12N. Elsewhere, seas are generally 2 to 4 ft, with 5 ft reaching into the Yucatan Channel. Satellite imagery reveals isolated showers and thunderstorms over most of the basin east of 83W, including Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. For the forecast, low pressure offshore the southeastern United States will drift westward, and move inland on Fri. High pressure will build westward in the wake of the low through Fri. The associated gradient will increase the trades to fresh to locally strong across the Caribbean east of 80W through Sun night, diminishing to mainly fresh Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1012 mb surface low analyzed east of the Florida peninsula near 29N77.5W with a trough extending from the center of the low to 24N77W has dissipated as of 15Z, leaving the surface trough from 29.5N79W to 23.5N79W. Isolated moderate convection is present near the axis of the remaining trough from 25N to 34N between 76W and 81W. To the east, a stationary front extends from 31N65W, south-southwest to the far eastern edge of Cuba near 20N75W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted on either side of the front from 20N to 31N between 60W and 72W, with isolated strong along the front from 23N to 29N between 66W and 69W. Light to gentle north to northeast winds exist between the surface trough and east coast of Florida, while a wide swath of mainly fresh to strong southeast to south winds are present from 18N to 30N between 60W and 70W. Wave heights are in the range of 8 to 10 ft due to long-period north to northeast swell within the area of north to northeast winds, and 6 to 8 ft within the area of fresh to strong southeast to south winds. Wave heights of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere northeast and east of the Bahamas to 60W. Further east, strong high pressure ridging, anchored by a 1032 mb high well north of the area near 42N41W and a 1029 mb high near 37N51W prevails over the central and eastern Atlantic. Broad anticyclonic flow covers the Atlantic north of 14N and east of 60W eastward. Mostly moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic wind flow exists south of 28N across the central Atlantic, along with seas of 4 to 7 ft east of 60W. For the forecast, the aforementioned low near 29N77.5W will weaken while slowly moving southwestward to inland Georgia on Fri. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds and large seas are north and northeast of the Bahamas. These conditions will shift westward today and diminish. High pressure across the central Atlantic will build westward into the region in the wake of the low through Sat. The pressure gradient between these two systems will result in an area of fresh to strong southerly winds north of about 22N between 65W and 75W through Fri. $$ Nepaul/jrl