000 AXNT20 KNHC 121047 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu May 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W/36W from 01N to 14N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is depicted in the CIRA precipitable water animation imagery. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of 03N34W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and extends southwestward to 04N17W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03N22W and to 05N30W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 22W-27W, within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 22W-24W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 24W-27W. Similar activity is seen from 05N to 09N between 16W-22W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high pressure center is analyzed over the north-central Gulf near 29N90W. This high center is within an area of broad high pressure that extends eastern U.S. seaboard southwestward to across the Gulf. Associated anticyclonic throughout the Gulf consists of gentle to moderate winds, except for moderate north to northeast winds in the NE Gulf, and fresh northeast to east winds in the southeastern Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche per latest ASCAT data passes. Wave heights are generally in the 3-5 ft range, except for 4-6 ft in the eastern Bay of Campeche and 2-4 ft wave heights southwest of southwestern Louisiana. Hazy conditions are possible in the west-central and southwestern Gulf due to ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico. For the forecast, the high pressure over the area will maintain a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through the period. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds are expected over the eastern Gulf through Thu, diminishing to gentle speeds Thu night. Fresh to strong winds north to northeast winds will pulse offshore the the Yucatan peninsula tonight, becoming fresh east winds late Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the southeastern Bahamas southwestward to the Windward Passage and to near 19N83W. Atlantic high pressure stretches southwestward to just north of the northeastern Caribbean. The gradient between the high pressure and the front is leading to moderate to fresh east to southeast trades. Gentle to moderate northeast to east trades are elsewhere, except for fresh east trades north of 18N west of 85W, and gentle northwest to north winds south of 11N west of 80W. Wave heights are in the range of 4-6 ft, except for slightly lower wave heights of 3-5 ft north of 18N west of 75W and 2-3 ft from 11N to 15N between 72W- 76W and in the Gulf of Honduras. Satellite imagery showers scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over most of the sea east of about 80W, including Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are south of 17N west of 80W. For the forecast, low pressure offshore the southeastern United States will drift westward, and move inland on Fri. High pressure will build westward in the wake of the low through Fri. The associated gradient will increase the trades to fresh to locally strong across the Caribbean Sea east of 80W starting Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N54W, south-southwest to 25N67W, to the Windward Passage and to the northwestern Caribbean Sea near 19N83W. A surface trough extends from low pressure of 1010 mb that is north of the area near 34N74W, south to 31N74W and to the central Bahamas near 23N75W. Fresh north to northeast winds are between the trough and Florida north of 27N, while a wide swath of fresh to strong southeast to south winds are present from 23N to 30N between 65W-69W. Wave heights are in the range of 8-10 ft due long-period north to northeast swell within the area of fresh north to northeast winds, and 7-9 ft within the area of fresh to strong southeast to south winds. Wave heights of 5-7 ft are elsewhere northeast and east of the Bahamas to 46W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted within 240 nm east of the front from 24N to 27N, and within 60 nm east of the front north of 27N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm west of the front north of 23N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are east of the stationary front to 58W and from 20N to 24N. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 28N between 71W-80W. Strong high pressure, anchored by a 1033 mb high well north of the area near 43W43W and a 1030 mb high near 37W50W is present over the central and eastern Atlantic. A weakening cold front is just north of the area between 27W-33W. Broad anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic north of 14N and east of 0W eastward. Mostly fresh to some moderate anticyclonic wind flow along with wave heights in the range of 4-6 ft are south 31N and east of 46W, with the exception of slighter higher wave heights of 5-7 ft from 21N to 24N between 38W-45W. For the forecast, the 1010 mb low pressure that is north of the forecast waters about 175 nm east of Cape Fear, North Carolina will weaken while slowly moving southwestward to inland Georgia on Fri. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds and large seas are north and northeast of the Bahamas. These conditions will shift westward today and diminish. High pressure across the central Atlantic will build westward into the region in the wake of the low through Sat. The pressure gradient between these two systems will result in an area of fresh to strong southerly winds north of about 22N between 65W and 75W through Fri. $$ Aguirre