000
AXNT20 KNHC 111037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed May 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W, from 12N southward,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present within 120 nm on either side of the wave axis from 03N to
07N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 
10N14W to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W to 02N30W. The 
ITCZ then continues W of the Tropical Wave, along the Equator from
33W to 38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm N
of the moonsoon trough and ITCZ, E of the Tropical Wave, and along

GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the Gulf 
of Mexico. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the western Gulf and 3 to 5 ft in
the eastern Gulf. Hazy conditions are impacting the SW Gulf of
Mexico, due to ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico. With high 
pressure centered N of the region dominating, no convection is 
present in the basin. 

For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern U.S. will 
build S across the basin today then shift slowly W through Thu as 
a new center develops across the NW Gulf, then drifts E and 
remains across the N central Gulf through Sat. This will produce 
moderate to fresh easterly winds across much of the Gulf through 
tonight. These winds will pulse to strong over the eastern Bay of 
Campeche tonight. Winds will weaken basin wide Thu through Sat as 
the high becomes centered over N portions of the basin. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid and upper level trough with an axis along 80W, S of 16N, is
inducing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 12N
to 15N between 76W and 80W. Otherwise, the land breeze effect from
Cuba is leading to scattered moderate convection between western
Cuba and the Cayman Islands. Elsewhere, dry conditions prevail.  

Moderate to fresh trades encompass the central and eastern
Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds over much of the west.
Winds are light to gentle S of 11N in the far SW Caribbean, and
also in the vicinity of the Windward Passage. Seas are 3 to 5 ft
for most of the basin, with 1 to 3 ft seas in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, a surface ridge stretches from the central 
Atlantic southwestward to near 22N70W. This pattern will maintain 
moderate to fresh trades across the basin E of 78W today. Low 
pressure offshore of the SE United States will drift W and 
eventually inland on Fri. The ridge across the Atlantic to the E 
of this feature will build westward behind the low through Fri and
act to increase tradewinds to fresh to locally strong across the 
Carib E of 75W starting Thu. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes from 31N61W to the Turks and Caicos Islands
and the Windward Passage. A 1006 mb low is noted near 32N71W, with
a surface trough extending from this low through the NW Bahamas.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within
150 nm either side of the cold front. Behind the trough fresh to
strong N winds prevail, highest N of 28N. Ahead of the trough but
behind the cold front, moderate SW winds prevail. To the east of
the cold front, fresh southerly winds dominate to 55W. Seas in the
area of strong N winds are 12 to 14 ft, with 8 to 12 ft seas
elsewhere behind the cold front. The remainder of the area W of
55W has seas of 5 to 7 ft.

Farther east, much of the basin's weather is being controlled by a
1030 mb surface high centered near 36N45W. This is causing mainly
moderate E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front front will stall today,
then dissipate tonight. Low pressure will move slowly WSW and 
eventually move inland over Georgia Fri. Fresh to strong N winds 
and large N-NE associated with this system will impact areas W of 
70W and N of 28N through Thu before diminishing. High pressure 
across the central Atlc will build W into the region behind the 
low through Sat. 

$$
Konarik