000 AXNT20 KNHC 110511 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed May 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0440 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W/31W, from 12N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 03N to 07N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W to 06N17W, and 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W, to 04N26W and 02N29W. The ITCZ continues from the Equator along 31W, to 01S35W, 01S38W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the northwest of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from the tropical wave eastward; and from 05N southward between 44W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the Gulf of Mexico. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the western half of the area. The wave heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the eastern half of the area. It is possible that hazy conditions, that are due to ongoing agricultural fires in Mexico, may be in the west central and SW Gulf of Mexico. High pressure across the eastern U.S. will build S across the basin through early Wed then shift slowly W through Thu as a new center develops across the NW Gulf, then drifts E and remains across the N central Gulf through Sat. This will produce moderate to fresh easterly winds across much of the Gulf through Wed night. These winds will pulse to strong over the eastern Bay of Campeche tonight and again Wed evening. Winds will weaken basin wide Thu through Sat as the high becomes centered over N portions of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough is between 80W and Central America. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 12N to 14N between 77W and 80W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and other possible isolated moderate rainshowers, are elsewhere from 80W eastward. The wave heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet. Mostly moderate to fresh easterly winds are in the Caribbean Sea. The exceptions are: within 180 nm to the south of NW Cuba; within 60 nm to the south of the Dominican Republic; and in the SW corner of the area from 13N southward from 77W westward. A surface ridge stretches from the central Atlantic southwestward to near 22N70W. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh trades across the basin E of 78W tonight. Low pressure offshore of the SE United States will drift SW and move to midway between South Carolina and Bermuda tonight, then drift W and eventually inland on Fri. The ridge across the Atlantic to the E of this feature will build westward behind the low late tonight through Fri and act to increase trade winds to fresh to locally strong across the Carib E of 75W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N62W, to 26N65W, to the SE Bahamas, to SE Cuba. A surface trough extends from a 32N71W 1005 mb low pressure center, to 29N71W 27N72W, to the Bahamas near 25N77W. Strong to near gale-force winds are from 120 nm to 330 nm away from the 1005 mb low pressure center in the western semicircle from 30N northward. The wave heights range from 9 feet to 13 feet from the Bahamas near 25N76W northward. The wave heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet from 27N northward between 60W and 70W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm on either side of the cold front. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 70W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward from 60W eastward. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow, and wave heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the Atlantic Ocean, from 30N southward from 60W eastward. A cold front extends from E of Bermuda to eastern Cuba. This front will stall Wed and dissipate Wed night. A 1006 mb low pres center located ESE and offshore of Cape Hatteras will move slowly WSW and eventually move inland over Georgia Fri. Fresh to strong N winds and large N-NE associated with this system will impact areas W of 70W and N of 28N through Thu before diminishing. High pressure across the central Atlc will build W into the region behind the low late Wed through Sat. $$ mt/sk