000 AXNT20 KNHC 101001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue May 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends from the Equator to 19N, with an axis along 27W. It is moving westward at 15 kts. No significant convection is currently associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough exits the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and extends to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues west of the tropical wave from 01N27W to 00N35W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 15W and 20W, and within 150 nm of the ITCZ, W of 28W. GULF OF MEXICO... The Gulf of Mexico is mainly under the influence of high pressure, supporting moderate to fresh mainly E winds across the basin. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the western Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. No convection is present, but hazy conditions due to ongoing agricultural fires over Mexico may still be prevalent over the W and SW Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern U.S. will build SSW across the basin through early Wed then shift slowly W through Fri. This will produce moderate to fresh easterly winds across much of the Gulf through Wed night. These winds will pulse to strong over the eastern Bay of Campeche this evening and Wed evening. Winds will weaken basin wide Thu and Fri as the ridge shifts W. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trades are ongoing in the eastern and central Caribbean, as well as in the vicinity of the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 7 ft where winds are fresh, 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Diurnal convection has mostly dissipated overnight, but some moderate convection persists near the Colombian coast. For the forecast, A surface ridge will maintain moderate to fresh trades across most of the basin tonight. Low pressure offshore of the eastern United States will drift SW and move to mid way between N Florida and Bermuda tonight, then drift W and eventually inland by Fri. High pressure across the Atlantic to the E of this feature will increase tradewinds to fresh to locally strong across the Caribbean E of 75W Wed through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front stretches from near Bermuda to Fort Lauderdale, Florida. A pre-frontal trough extends from just E of Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Fresh NW winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft follow this cold front. Farther north, a nearly stationary 1003 mb low near 34N73W is supporting gale force winds N of the area off the Mid-Atlantic U.S. Strong N winds associated with this low extend S to around 29N, W of 74W. Seas in this area are 11 to 13 ft. Convection from these features is primarily along and ahead of the pre-frontal trough, with isolated strong thunderstorms and more numerous showers from N of 23N between 60W and 70W. To the S and E, the Azores high is the dominant feature, leading to mainly moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft across most of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will overtake the pre- frontal trough later today. This front will stall from just E of Bermuda to just N of Hispaniola by Wed morning, then gradually dissipate into late week. The low pressure offshore of Cape Hatteras will move SW to between Bermuda and the SE U.S. coast Wed then drift W and inland over Georgia Fri. Fresh to strong N winds and large N-NE associated with this system will impact areas W of 70W and N of 28N through Thu before diminishing. $$ Konarik