000 AXNT20 KNHC 100001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue May 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W, from the Equator to south of the Cabo Verde Islands at 13N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Convection has weakened steadily over the last 24 hours with scattered moderate convection mainly near the southern portion of the wave from 03N to 06N between 13W and 31W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough exits the coast of Guinea-Bissau to near 09N18W. An ITCZ continues southwestward from 09N18W to EQ28W, then westward to NW of Belem, Brazil at 01N50W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is seen near the ITCZ, south of 3N between 23W and the Brazilian coast. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary boundary extends across the NE Gulf from near Cider Key, Florida to near the Mississippi-Louisiana border. Moderate NE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are observed near and north of this feature. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft are found south of the front across the E central and SE Gulf. The central and W Gulf are dominated by moderate to locally fresh SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas. Hazy conditions due to ongoing agricultural fires over Mexico may still be prevalent over the W and SW Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern U.S. will build SSW across the Gulf tonight through early Wed then shift slowly W through Fri. This will produce moderate to fresh easterly winds across much of the Gulf tonight through Wed night. These winds will pulse to strong over the eastern Bay of Campeche Tue evening and Wed evening. Winds across the entire Gulf will weaken Thu and Fri as the ridge shifts W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge extends southwestward from the central Atlantic to Hispaniola, then continues westward to the Yucatan Peninsula. This feature is sustaining moderate to fresh NE to E trades with seas at 4 to 7 ft over the E and central basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE trades along with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the W basin, except moderate to fresh SE trades with seas at 3 to 5 ft near the Bay of Honduras. For the forecast, the surface ridge will maintain moderate to fresh trades across most of the basin into tonight. Low pressure offshore of the Middle Atlantic states will drift SW and move to midway between N Florida and Bermuda late Tue, then drift W and eventually inland by Fri. High pres across the Atlc to the E of this feature will increase trade winds to fresh to locally strong across the basin E of 75W Wed through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves west-southwestward from a quasi-stationary 1003 mb low off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast, across 31N69W to near Jacksonville, Florida. Scattered showers are seen near this boundary N of 27N between 70W and the Georgia-N Florida coast. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft in N swell related the low and front are present near and N of the front to beyond 31N. Farther SE, a frontal surface trough extends southwestward from NE of Bermuda across 31N62W and the central Bahamas to the Florida Straits. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring up to 150 nm SE of the trough axis. Moderate to fresh southerly winds along with 6 to 8 ft seas are present W of the trough, N of 27N between 60W and 68W. A couple of surface troughs embedded within the trades are triggering widely scattered showers N of 20N between 36W and 57W. Moderate to locally fresh NE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft dominate the E Atlantic between 25W and 40W, and farther SW from the Equator to 16N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the frontal trough will move slowly SE through early Wed then stall across the SE Bahamas Wed through Thu. The 1003 mb low will move SW to between Bermuda and the SE U.S. coast late Tue, then drift W and inland by Fri. Fresh to strong N winds and large N-NE swell associated with this system will impact areas W of 70W and N of 28N tonight through Thu before diminishing. $$ Chan