000 AXNT20 KNHC 090531 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon May 09 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 17W from 02N to 13N. It is moving westward at 10 kt. The Hovmoller diagram satellite imagery sequence for the past 5 days reveals that this wave has a good track history. The latest satellite imagery shows an area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection east of the wave from 04N to 08N between 11W and 15W. Scattered moderate convection is west of the wave from 00N to 11N between 17W and 22W. Tropical wave guidance has it moving westward over the next 24-48 hours, passing well to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to 00N28W, then along the Equator to 40W and 50W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 27W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A recent satellite scatterometer pass reveals light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Moderate SE winds were observed in the western Gulf, west of 90W. Seas are 1 to 3 ft across the basin, except in the NW Gulf where recent buoy observations are reporting 4 ft seas. Hazy conditions due to ongoing agricultural fires over Mexico may still be prevalent over the W and SW Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will build in from the north, bringing moderate to fresh easterly winds across much of the Gulf from Mon night through Wed night. These winds will pulse to strong over the eastern Bay of Campeche from Mon night thru Wed night. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will prolong hazy conditions across the central W and SW Gulf tonight. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure ridging over the northern Caribbean and lower pressure over the Colombian Basin is maintaining moderate to fresh trades across the south-central and southeastern Caribbean Sea, as well as near the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere with 2 to 4 ft seas. Winds north of 17N are mainly SE to S. No significant convection is noted at this time. For the forecast, the high pressure ridging will maintain moderate to fresh trades across the entire basin into Mon. A robust surface trough moving across the Bahamas should allow winds over the northwest part of the basin to become gentle to moderate by Mon night, while moderate to fresh trades will continue for the central and eastern basin into Fri. Fresh winds may pulse in and near the Gulf of Honduras Mon night and in the south-central Caribbean Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1002 mb cut-off low pressure system offshore Cape Hatteras is creating a disturbed weather pattern in the western Atlantic. A cold front extends from the low south-southwestward to 31N73W and west from there to Cape Canaveral, FL. A surface trough is analyzed from near 31N66W to the northern Bahamas. Recent scatterometer imagery observes fresh NW winds west of the surface trough with fresh S-SW winds are east of the axis to 60W. The low pressure system and associated front and trough are underneath a large upper-level trough. Upper dynamics contributed by this system, in addition to very moist southwest flow east of the surface trough, are helping to sustain a large area of numerous and rather vigorous thunderstorms with frequent lightning. This activity is within 120 nm of a line that stretches from 31N63W to 23N70W to the northern coast of Cuba. Currently, seas south of 31N and west of 55W are in the 3 to 6 ft range, confirmed by buoy and altimeter data. As the aforementioned cut-off low lingers in the western Atlantic for the next several days, this will result in the propagation of northeast swell through the waters north of and northeast of the Bahamas and west of 72W, including the waters between the NW Bahamas and South Florida. Mariners should exercise caution in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream this week as the swell opposes the current, creating choppy seas and hazardous marine conditions. East of 55W, the area is under the broad anticyclonic flow provided by the Azores high and a 1028 mb high that is north of the area near 34N37W. Gentle to moderate easterly trades are present over this area with 3 to 5 ft seas, except for moderate to fresh trades east of 35W. A tighter pressure gradient in the northeast Atlantic is supporting an area of fresh to strong northeast winds near the Canary Islands where seas are 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough will slowly drift eastward over the Central/SE Bahamas through Mon, and it should allow the fresh to strong winds to shift north of 31N late tonight. Afterward, the aforementioned cold front will sink further south and bring strong N winds and rough seas off the Georgia- northern Florida coast through early Thu morning. $$ Mora