000 AXNT20 KNHC 082349 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon May 09 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern tropical wave is along 15W from 02N to 15N. It is moving westward at 10 kt. The Hovmoller diagram satellite imagery sequence for the past 5 days reveals that this wave has a good track history. Latest satellite imagery shows and extensive area of numerous moderate to isolated strong from 02N to 10N between the coast of Africa and 23W. Tropical wave guidance has it moving westward over the next 24-48 hours, passing well to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 03N22W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 01N30W, then along the Equator to 40W and 50W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 47W-50W and within 90 nm south of the ITCZ between 41W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front extends from 29N87W northwestward to to the Mississippi River Delta. There is no convection occurring with this front as very stable conditions remain throughout the basin. Light to gentle variable winds are north of the front, while light to gentle winds are elsewhere east of 90W. Gentle to moderate winds are west of 90W. Seas are generally in the 1-3 ft range, except in the NW and west-central Gulf where seas are slightly higher, in the 3-4 ft range as seen in buoy observations and in a recent altimeter data pass over the western Gulf. Visible satellite imagery depicts hazy skies over most of the western Gulf areas. For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate this evening as high pressure builds in from the north. The associated gradient will bringing moderate to fresh easterly winds across most of the Gulf from Mon night through Wed night. These winds will pulse to strong during night time hours off the central Florida coast at night Mon and Tue, and over the eastern Bay of Campeche from Mon night thru Wed night. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will prolong hazy conditions across mainly the west-central and southwestern Gulf through early this evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure ridging over the northern Caribbean and lower pressure over the Colombian Basin is maintaining moderate trades across the majority of the basin. Fresh east trades are in the south-central basin with fresh southeast trades off the coast of Honduras and from 15N to 18N between 80W-85W. Gentle trades are over the far southwestern Caribbean, including the entrance to the Panama Canal. Seas are generally in the 3-5 ft range, with 4-6 seas in the south- central Caribbean. Lower seas of 2-4 ft are between 64W-68W as well as over the north-central and northwestern Caribbean areas. Scattered to locally broken low-level clouds moving northwestward with isolated showers are noted from just northeast of Puerto Rico to the waters in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands. A few showers and thunderstorms are over some of the interior sections of central and western Cuba. Isolated showers are possible over the interior of Hispaniola and over some interior sections of Puerto Rico. For the forecast, the high pressure ridging will maintain moderate to fresh trades across the entire basin into Mon. A robust surface trough moving across the Bahamas should allow winds over the northwest part of the basin to become gentle to moderate by Mon night, while moderate to fresh trades will continue for the central and eastern basin into Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An 1002 mb cut-off low pressure system offshore Cape Hatteras is creating a disturbed weather pattern in the western Atlantic. A cold front extends from the low south-southwestward to 30N75W and west-northwest from there to inland southern Georgia. A surface trough is analyzed from near 31N73W to the central Bahamas. The low pressure system and associated front and trough are underneath a large upper-level trough. Upper dynamics contributed by this system, in addition to very moist southwest flow east of the surface trough is helping to sustain a large area of numerous and rather vigorous thunderstorms with frequent lightning. This activity is within 120 nm of a line that stretches from 31N65W to 27N68W to 23N74W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are south of 26N west of 72W to near 80W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the trough from 28N to 30N. Isolated showers are elsewhere west of 74W. An ASCAT from this afternoon highlighted fresh to strong southwest winds east of the surface trough to near 69W. Gentle to moderate west to northwest winds are west of the surface trough, except for moderate to fresh northeast winds north of 28N and west of 80W. Between 55W-75W, south to southwest moderate to fresh winds are evident, with an area of fresh to strong southwest winds from 29N to 31N between 68W-71W. Seas are generally 4-6 ft with an area of 6-8 ft seas north of 27N between 65W-73W. As the aforementioned cut-off low lingers in the western Atlantic for the next several days, this will result in the propagation of northeast swell through the waters north of and northeast of the Bahamas and west of 72W, including the waters between the NW Bahamas and South Florida. The swell will Mariners should exercise caution in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream this week as the swell opposes the current, creating choppy seas and hazardous marine conditions. East of 55W, the area is under the broad anticyclonic flow provided by the Azores high and a 1027 mb high that is north of the area near 33N40W. Gentle to moderate easterly trades are present over this area, except for moderate to fresh trades confined to south of about 17N. A tighter pressure gradient in the northeast Atlantic is supporting an area of fresh to strong northeast winds near the Canary Islands and 6-8 ft seas from 26N- 31N between 18W-28W. For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough that extends from 31N73W to the central Bahamas will slowly drift eastward to over the Central/and southeastern Bahamas through Mon. This should allow the fresh to strong winds to shift north of 31N late tonight. Afterward, the cold front associated to the cut-off low offshore Cape Hatteras will push farther south and bring strong north winds and rough seas off the Georgia and north Florida coasts through early Thu morning. $$ Aguirre