000 AXNT20 KNHC 080501 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun May 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The first tropical wave of the season appears to move off the W coast of Africa. Currently, clusters of moderate to strong convection are noted over parts of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The Hovmoller diagram clearly shows the westward propagation of this convective activity. Tropical wave guidance has it moving westward over the next 24-48 hours, crossing just S of the Cabo Verde Islands. A tropical wave will likely be added to the 0600 UTC analysis/surface map. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to 01N35W and to 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 02N to 06N between 12W and 17W, and from 00N to 04N between 30W and 50W. Similar convection is S of 01N between 17W and 22W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends westward across N Florida, and the Florida panhandle. A band of showers and thunderstorms persist ahead of the front and now is affecting South Florida and parts of the SE Gulf. Moderate to fresh W winds are noted over the NE Gulf and S of the front. A weak ridge dominates the remainder of the Gulf waters providing a light to gentle anticyclonic flow throughout. Seas are generally in the 1 to 3 ft range. An altimeter pass over the western Gulf indicates these wave heights. Once again, a surface trough is analyzed over the Yucatan peninsula. This trough usually develops over the Yucatan peninsula during the evening hours, shifts westward into the SW Gulf each night, and dissipates over the SW Gulf each morning. For the forecast, the weak ridge now in place will be reinforcing by the high pressure that follows the above mentioned front. This system will shift east, allowing for fresh SW winds to developing in the western Gulf early this week. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will occur within about 90 nm of the N and W coasts of the Yucatan peninsula mainly during the evening hours Mon through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad ridge stretches from the Atlantic to the far NW Caribbean. This system combined with the Colombia low supports moderate to fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean, particularly between the ABC Islands and the Guajira peninsula in northern Colombia, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of these winds. Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally in the 3 to 5 ft range. A few thunderstorms are still noted over parts of eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. The majority of this activity developed due to afternoon heating, sea breezes and local terrain effects. Strong upper-level westerly winds are advecting multilayer clouds, with possible showers, across the southern Caribbean into the Atlantic. Convection has flared-up over most of Honduras and southern Guatemala, where a diffluence pattern aloft is noted. Similar convective activity is observed over northern Colombia. For the forecast, the surface ridge will maintain moderate to fresh trades across the entire basin through Mon. Then a weakening cold front moving across the Bahamas should allow winds over the NW basin to become gentle to moderate by Mon evening, while moderate to fresh trades will continue for the central and eastern basin through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N77W to just S of Jacksonville, FL. A wide band of showers and thunderstorms remains ahead of the front and extends from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and South Florida. An ASCAT data pass provided observations of fresh to strong southwest winds ahead of the front, and mainly fresh NW winds behind it. Seas in the area are 6 to 8 ft. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a broad high pressure anchored by a 1027 mb high center located near 33N41W. Another 1026 mb high pressure is over the Azores. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures over W Africa is resulting in fresh to strong N winds between the Madeira and the Canary Islands, including the regional waters of southern Morocco. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are within this area of winds. Fresh N winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are seen between the the Cabo Verde Islands. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-5 ft seas dominate the remainder of the basin. In the central Atlantic, an upper-level low located near 28N52W is generating a large area of broken to overcast multilayer clouds with possible patches of rain and some shower activity. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will move SE through Mon, when it will reach a Bermuda to central Bahamas line. The front will then dissipate into mid- week. Fresh to strong winds will prevail ahead of the front, N of 25N and W of 65W through Sun. By Sun night, winds behind the front, N of 28N, will increase to strong, aided by strengthening low pressure off the North Carolina coast. This low will strong N winds and higher seas across the far NW area through mid-week. $$ GR