000 AXNT20 KNHC 072315 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun May 08 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 05N19W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 02N30W to 01N40W and to 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 01S to 03N between 14W-22W, and from 02N to 04N between 07W-14W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 34W-38W, and within 150 nm north of the ITCZ between 33W-38W and between 41W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends from just north of Tampa, Florida northwestward to southeastern Louisiana near 29N89W where it transitions to a warm front and continues northwestward to inland central and western Louisiana. Pre-frontal scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen within about 150 nm south of the front east of 86W to inland central Florida. Gentle to moderate west to northwest winds are north of the front, except for higher winds of fresh speeds north of 29N. Seas north of the front are in the 3-4 ft range, except for higher seas of 4-6 ft north of 29N. Elsewhere, weak high pressure is in place providing for light to gentle anticyclonic flow throughout. Seas elsewhere are low, in the 2-3 ft range. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will is expected to be east of the Gulf by Mon, followed by high pressure building southward from the southeastern U.S. This will bring moderate to fresh easterly winds across much of the Gulf through midweek next week. Winds just north of the Yucatan and in the eastern Bay of Campeche are expected to pulse between fresh and strong during the night, from Mon night through Wed night, then mainly fresh Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad high pressure ridging stretches from the Atlantic to the far north-central Caribbean and to the northwestern Caribbean and the Yucatan Channel area. The associated gradient is providing for mainly gentle to moderate trades across the basin, except for fresh trades south of 15N between 68W-72W and light and variable winds over the southwestern Caribbean. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range, except for lower seas of 2-4 ft in the north- central and northwest sections of the sea. The Caribbean is absent of deep convection as atmospheric conditions remain rather tranquil and stable. The only exceptions noted are in the extreme northeast part of the sea, where a large patch of low-level moisture associated to a surface trough that extends from Guadeloupe to near 13N65W is moving westward to the north of 15N and east of 65W. This moisture patch is characterized by broken to overcast low- level clouds with isolated to possibly scattered showers as noted in recent surface observations from the Leeward Islands. Isolated showers are possible south of 15N and east of 70W. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will maintain moderate to fresh trades across the entire basin through Mon. A weakening cold front moving across the Bahamas should allow winds over the northwest part of the sea to become gentle to moderate by Mon evening, while moderate to fresh trades will continue for the central and eastern basin through Thu night. Showers and thunderstorms will persist near the Leeward Islands through Sun night. Larger trade-wind swell from the central Atlantic should approach the Lesser Antilles near mid-week next week, and spread into the eastern part of the sea by Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N78W to inland central Florida near Cape Canaveral. A pre-frontal squall line is analyzed from 31N75W to 28N79W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring along the squall line. An ASCAT data pass from this afternoon indicated fresh to strong southwest winds ahead of the cold front, and mainly fresh west winds behind it. Seas in the area are 6-9 ft primarily due to a west swell. Conditions improve south and east of the front, with moderate or lighter winds south of 25N and east of 65W. In the central Atlantic, a weak surface trough extends from near 22N50W to 15N55W. This trough is related to an upper-level low that is identified on water vapor to be near 21N52W. Broken to overcast multilayer clouds are noted east of the low to 44W, also from 21N to 27N between 42W-48W and from 15N to 19N between 42W-55W. Patches of rain along with scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible within these areas of clouds. Isolated showers are seen from 10N to 19N between 55W and the Windward Islands. In the eastern Atlantic, broad high pressure anchored by a 1025 mb high center that is north of the area near 32N40W, controls the weather pattern over that part of the Atlantic. The associated gradient is allowing for fresh northeast winds to exist near the Cabo Verde Islands and to the north of the Canary Islands. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft seas dominate the remainder of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will prolong fresh to strong southwest to west winds off the Florida coast, just north of the Bahamas through tonight. The front will slowly move eastward reaching from 31N73W to South Florida Sun, and from from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas on Mon. This will cause the fresh to strong winds to shift eastward into the west central Atlantic waters. A cut-off low is going to intensify off the Carolina coast Mon night through Wed, which should bring fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas off the Georgia/Florida coast. $$ Aguirre