018 AXNT20 KNHC 071609 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat May 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues SW to 06N16W. The ITCZ extends from 06N16W to 01N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 04N, E of 27W; from 00N to 00N to 04N, between 31W and 36W; and from 00N to 03N, west of 41W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends across the NE Gulf waters from north central FL to the TX/LA border. A line of thunderstorms is observed ahead of this boundary along a squall line in the eastern Gulf. Moderate NW winds are observed behind the front with 3 to 5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate southerly flow and 2 to 4 ft seas dominate the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the cold front will sustain moderate W winds across the NE Gulf through this afternoon. The cold front should be east of the Gulf by Mon, following a high building southward from the southeast U.S. which will cause moderate to fresh southerly winds over the W Gulf through midweek. Winds just north of the Yucatan and in the eastern Bay of Campeche are expected to pulse between fresh and strong during the night, from Mon night through Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge extends from the Atlantic into the NE Caribbean. Mainly gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin, except light and variable winds over the SW Caribbean. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range, except for 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba. For the forecast, the surface ridge will maintain moderate to fresh trades across the entire basin through Mon. Then a weakening cold front moving off southern Florida should allow winds over the NW basin to become gentle to moderate by Mon evening, while moderate to fresh trades will continue for the central and eastern basin through Wed night. Higher trade-wind swell from the central Atlantic should begin to enter the eastern basin near midweek next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N79W to 30N81W. A pre-frontal squall line is analyzed from 31N76W to 28N80W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring along the squall line. A recent scatterometer pass found fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the cold front, with fresh to strong westerlies behind. Seas in the area are 6 to 8 ft and building. Conditions improve south and east of the front with moderate or lighter winds south of 25N and east of 65W. In the eastern Atlantic, fresh NE winds are noted near the Cabo Verde Islands and N of the Canary Islands. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas dominate the remainder of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will prolong fresh to strong SW to W winds off the Florida coast, just north of the Bahamas through this evening. The front will move eastward, from 31N73W to the NW Bahamas on Mon, causing fresh to locally strong winds to shift to the west central Atlantic waters. A cut-off low is going to intensify off the North Carolina coast Mon night through Tue night, which should bring fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas off the Georgia/Florida coast. $$ Flynn