000 AXNT20 KNHC 071000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat May 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues SW to 03N18W. The ITCZ extends from 03N18W to 00N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 04N, E of 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters. A cold front extends along the northern Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle to SW Louisiana. A cluster of moderate convection is noted ahead of this front from 26N to 29N E of 85W. Thunderstorms previously along the Mexican coast have dissipated, although a weak surface trough remains analyzed along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh mainly W winds over over the NE Gulf of Mexico, with seas of 3 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, a light to gentle anticyclonic flow is noted with the exception of moderate N winds off the W coast of the Yucatan peninsula. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate, promoting quiescent conditions through early next week. A cold front will move through the far NE Gulf tonight, then spill south along the west coast of Florida Sun, then be east of the area by Sun night. Meanwhile, an overnight trough off Yucatan will support pulses of fresh winds off the N and W coasts of Yucatan Mon night into Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge extends from the Atlantic into the NE Caribbean. Mainly gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin, except light and variable winds over the SW Caribbean, and locally fresh winds in and near the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range, except for 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba. Convection that had be in waters near the Greater Antilles has diminished diurnally. For the forecast, the Bermuda High will weaken today as it slides eastward toward the central Atlantic, allowing winds to diminish to generally moderate to locally fresh through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak surface trough from 30N79W to central Florida is leading to scattered moderate convection within 30 nm either side of its axis. High pressure of 1021 mb located near 28N56W extends a ridge across the Atlantic W of 50W. For areas E of the high, moderate to fresh S winds are increasing, with strong SW winds N of the aforementioned surface trough, ahead of a cold front just inland over the SE U.S. A surface trough stretches from 22N48W to 16N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm either side of this trough axis, with moderate NE to E winds located W of the trough to about 55W. Farther E, another trough extends from a weak 1016 mb low pressure situated near 31N33W to 20N36W. Mainly gentle winds prevail on both sides of the trough axis and no significant convection is associated with it. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a ridge. Fresh NE winds are noted E of the Cabo Verde Islands and N of the Canary Islands. Otherwise across the tropics mainly moderate trades prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda High will weaken and migrate eastward tonight. Fresh to strong S to SW winds N of the Bahamas will prevail into tonight, ahead of a cold front that is expected to move off the Florida coast tonight. The front will push southeast Sun and Mon, reach from 30N70W to the SE Bahamas by late Mon, and become stationary and dissipate on Tue. Fresh to strong N winds behind the front are anticipated north of the Bahamas Sun night through Tue night, and may be prolonged through the middle of next week as low pressure forms N of the area. $$ Konarik