000 AXNT20 KNHC 062337 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat May 07 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 02N15W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to the Equator at 25W and to 01S32W to 01S40W and to the Equator at 47W. Numerous moderate to strong conveciton is within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 18W-21W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 210 nm south of the ITCZ between 22W-28W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 39W- 43W. GULF OF MEXICO... Relatively weak high pressure is over the Gulf. A cold front is just inland the Louisiana and northeastern Texas coasts. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are moving eastward over the far northeastern Gulf. This activity is accompanied by frequent lightning as noted in latest GOES-E satellite imagery. Some of this activity may be on the strong side capable of producing strong gusty winds. This activity is being enhanced by an upper- level trough that is moving eastward as well over the same area. Rather stable conditions persist across the rest of the basin. Hazy skies due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico are evident over some sections of the central and western Gulf. Fresh southwest to west winds are over the northeastern Gulf per latest and current buoy observations. Partial ASCAT data and buoy observations show moderate south to southwest winds over the southeastern Gulf, moderate northeast to east winds over the central Bay of Campeche, gentle east to southeast winds over the west-central Gulf and light to variable winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 feet over the northeastern Gulf and north- central Gulf and 2-4 ft elsewhere, except for slighter higher seas of 3-5 ft over the west-central Gulf. For the forecast, the high pressure will gradually slide southward maintaining generally quiet conditions over most of the Gulf during the next couple of days. A weak cold front will move southward across the eastern Gulf Sat night through Sun. It will dissipate while exiting the basin Mon. Meanwhile, an overnight trough off Yucatan will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds off the north and west coasts of Yucatan Sun night through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from eastern Cuba south-southwest to near 17N77W. Broad cyclonic flow aloft is present to the north of 14N and east of 70W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are over some section of the interior of Cuba, Hispaniola and over the interior of the western section of Puerto Rico. The majority of this activity has develop due to afternoon heating and local terrain affects. The eastern segment of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough protrudes eastward along 10N to inland northwestern Colombia near 74W. With the broad cyclonic flow in place just to its north as mentioned above, this is helping to further enhance atmospheric moisture over the extreme southern and southwestern Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted south of 13N and west of 71W. Similar activity is south of 15N east of about 60W. Partial ASCAT data indicates fresh trades over the most of the central and northwest Caribbean, and gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range south of 15N west of 68W-72W, except for higher seas of 5-7 ft west of 76W. Seas are 3-5 ft elsewhere over the southern Caribbean. Slighter lower seas of 2-4 ft are over the remainder of the sea. For the forecast, the combination of the Bermuda High pressure system interacting with lower pressure in Colombia and Venezuela will maintain fresh to strong trades across most of the central Caribbean. The Bermuda High will weaken on Sat as it shifts eastward toward the central Atlantic, allowing for winds to diminish into the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from near 30N74W, south-southwest to eastern Cuba. A broad upper-level trough covers the area between 57W-70W. An upper-level appears to forming within the trough near 25N63W. This same trough extends southward over the Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present from 23N to 26N between 65W and the trough. A surface trough stretches from a weak 1017 mb low near 29N36W, northeastward to 32N33W and south-southwestward to 26N32W to 22N40W to 19N50W and to near Martinique. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are evident from 14N to 20N between 51W-61W. A weak 1017 mb high is centered near 24N71W, while a 1020 mb high is near 27N58W and a 1024 mb high is north of the area near 32N42W. High pressure is present over the remainder of the area. Fresh north winds are along and within 120 nm of the coast of Africa from 12N to 16N. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are from 15N to 23N between 46W-62W and from 17N to 22N between 30W-46W. Fresh to strong winds are over the northwest part of the area north of about 27N and west of 75W. These winds are in advance of an upcoming cold front. Generally, gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are elsewhere. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are north of 27N west of 75W. For the forecast, the surface trough that extends from 30N74W to eastern Cuba will dissipate overnight tonight. The rest of the area is dominated by the Bermuda High, which will weaken and migrate eastward into Sat. A cold front is expected to move off the Florida coast Sat night. The front will push southeast Sun and Mon, reach from 30N70W to western Cuba by late Mon, and become stationary and dissipate on Tue. Fresh to strong north winds behind the front are anticipated north of the Bahamas Mon into Tue night. $$ Aguirre