000 AXNT20 KNHC 062222 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri May 06 2022 Corrected to update earlier disussion Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W, to the Equator along 24W, to 02S30W, 01S36W, to the Equator along 46W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N southward between 05W and 08W, between 13W and 31W; and from 09N southward between 31W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A broad E-to-SW oriented surface ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge extends from a 1018 mb high pressure center that is just to the west of Andros Island in the Bahamas, into the west central Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate SE-to-S return flow, and wave heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are in the eastern one-third and in the western one-third of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE-to-S winds, and wave heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the remainder of the area. A surface trough passes through the coastal sections of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana, into the NW Gulf coastal waters, to the Deep South of Texas. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 135 nm to the east and southeast of the surface trough, between 83W in Florida to 93W in the Gulf of Mexico. Smoke, from agricultural fires in southern Mexico and northern Central America, is leading to some hazy conditions in the western Gulf of Mexico. Surface ridging across the N Gulf gradually will sink southward, promoting generally quiescent conditions over most of the Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days. A weak cold front will move southward across the E Gulf Sat night through Sun, before dissipating while exiting the basin Mon. Meanwhile, an overnight trough off Yucatan will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds off the N and W coasts of Yucatan Sun night into Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough, and a surface trough, have been along 73W/76W, from the Windward Passage, through the Bahamas, to 30N. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible in the Windward Passage. Moderate and fresh trade winds are in much of the Caribbean Sea. The exception is for light to gentle winds in the lee of Cuba, and in the far SW Caribbean Sea from 11N southward. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet, except for 2 feet to 4 feet in the lee of Cuba. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are to the south of the line from 18N60W to 14N70W to 14N at the coast of Nicaragua. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area. The eastern end of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 74W at the coast of Colombia westward. Other rainshowers are possible, during the rest of the afternoon, in areas of low level moisture, with afternoon heating. The pressure gradient, between the Bermuda High and lower pressure in Colombia and Venezuela, will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds across most of the central Caribbean Sea today. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the waters off central Honduras tonight. The Bermuda High will weaken Sat as it slides eastward toward the central Atlantic, allowing winds to diminish into the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough, and a surface trough, have been along 73W/76W, from the Windward Passage, through the Bahamas, to 30N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm to the east of the surface trough from 24N to 27N. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong precipitation, are in the Atlantic Ocean between 50W and 70W. One 1016 mb low pressure center is near 30N36W. A surface trough curves away from a first 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 30N36W, to 32N34W 30N32W, to 24N35W, to a second 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 21N46W, to 17N50W, and 15N59W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are within 120 nm on either side of the part of the trough that is between the two 1016 mb low pressure centers. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are within 360 nm to 480 nm to the south of the surface trough from 30W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean between the surface trough with two 1016 mb low pressure centers, and the 73W/76W surface trough. A surface ridge passes through 31N22W to 24N26W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 30W eastward. The wave heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet from 05N southward between 20W and 30W, just to the north of the ITCZ. The wave heights range from 5 feet to 6 feet from 10N southward. The wave heights range from 5 feet to 6 feet within 360 nm of the center in the NE quadrant of the 21N46W 1016 mb low pressure center, and within 630 nm of the same 1016 mb low pressure center in the SW quadrant. The wave heights range from 5 feet to 6 feet from 17N northward from 25W eastward. The wave heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh winds are: from 16N to 23N between 55W and 63W; from 15N southward between 57W and 66W; from 19N to 25N between 40W and 50W; from 12N southward between 40W and 54W; and from 14N to 20N between 19W and 25W. Moderate wind speeds, or slower, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Mostly moderate, to some fresh winds, are within 400 nm to the east of the 73W/76W surface trough. A surface trough NE of the Bahamas will dissipate today. The rest of the area is dominated by the Bermuda High, which will weaken and migrate eastward into Sat. Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds will develop north of the Bahamas starting tonight, ahead of a cold front that is expected to move off the Florida coast Sat night. The front will push southeast Sun and Mon, reach from 30N70W to western Cuba by late Mon, and become stationary and dissipate on Tue. Fresh to strong N winds behind the front are anticipated north of the Bahamas Mon into Tue night. $$ MT/AL