000 AXNT20 KNHC 060537 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri May 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W to 01N30W to the equator at 40W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 15W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge dominates the Gulf waters. Under the influence of this system, gentle to moderate SE-S return flow and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail over the eastern half of the Gulf while moderate to fresh SE-S winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted across the western half of the basin. Locally fresh winds are observed to the N and NW of the Yucatan peninsula where a surface trough is analyzed. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are affecting eastern Texas and SW Louisiana. This convective activity is reaching the NW Gulf. For the forecast, surface ridging across the N Gulf will gradually sink southward, promoting generally quiescent conditions over most of the Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days. A weak cold front will move southward across the E Gulf Sat night through Sun, before dissipating while exiting the basin Mon. Meanwhile, an overnight trough off Yucatan will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds off the N and W coasts of Yucatan through Fri, and again Sun night into Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh to strong trade winds near the Guajira Peninsula in northern Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades dominate the remainder of the basin, with the exception of light to gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across the south-central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted. An upper-level trough over the western Atlantic continues to support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Windward passage and Hispaniola. Similar convective activity is noted over northern Colombia. Patches of low level clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted elsewhere producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, the Bermuda High interacting with lower pressure over Colombia and Venezuela will maintain fresh to strong trades across most of the central Caribbean into Fri. Nightly pulsing fresh to strong trades will also affect the waters off central Honduras into Fri night. The Bermuda High will weaken Sat as it slides eastward toward the central Atlantic, allowing winds to diminish into the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level trough located over the western Atlantic supports an area of showers and thunderstorms located NE of the Bahamas, covering mainly the waters from 25N to 28N between 71W and 76W. At the surface, a weak 1015 mb low pressure has developed near 28N75W, with a trough that extends to east-central Cuba. Recent scatterometer data confirmed the presence of the low center that is producing mainly a light to gentle cyclonic flow. A 1021 mb high pressure remains S of Bermuda near 29N64W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are noted just off Hispaniola. Farther east, a surface trough stretches from 31N37W to 1016 mb low pressure situated near 21N47W to 17N56W. Recent scatterometer data indicate the wind shift associated with the trough axis as well as fresh NE winds on the north side of the low center. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen within this area. A belt of moderate to fresh NE to E winds is noted within about 210 nm N of the trough due to the pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure to the N. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is dominated by a ridge, anchored by a high pressure located well N of the forecast region. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are near the coast of Morocco. Mainly gentle to moderate trades dominate the tropics, with seas generally of 4 to 5 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, as previously mentioned weak low pressure centered NE of the Bahamas and an associated trough passing SW through the central Bahamas is leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms. This system and associated convection will diminish on Fri. The rest of the area is dominated by the Bermuda High, which will weaken and migrate eastward Fri into Sat. Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds will develop north of the Bahamas starting Fri night, ahead of a cold front that is expected to move off the Florida coast Sat night. The front will push southeast Sun and Mon, reach from 30N70W to western Cuba by late Mon, and become stationary and dissipate on Tue. Fresh to strong N winds behind the front are anticipated north of the Bahamas on Mon and Tue. $$ GR