000 AXNT20 KNHC 050913 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu May 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 01N30W to the coast of northern Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 00N to 02N between 23W and 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf, anchored by 1018 mb high pressure centered over the northeast Gulf. The routine, nightly surface trough is analyzed off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data show fresh to strong E winds over a small area along the northern coast of Yucatan. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident over much of the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted over the southeast Gulf, with light and variable winds over the northeast Gulf where seas are 2 ft or less. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident currently, but several platforms in the northwest Gulf are reporting minor restrictions to visibility due to haze. For the forecast, the surface ridge across the northern Gulf will shift south and weaken through Fri, ahead of a weak cold front moving into the northern Gulf Sat. This will allow moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the western Gulf to diminish. Winds over the north-central and northeast Gulf will veer SW ahead of the front late Fri. The front will move slowly across the eastern Gulf through Mon, then stall and weaken over Straits of Florida and the south- central Gulf by late Mon. Meanwhile, an overnight trough off Yucatan will support pulses of fresh to occasionally strong winds off the northern and western coasts of Yucatan through Fri, and again Sun and Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong E trade winds off the coast of northwest Colombia, and fresh E winds over the Bay Islands off the coast of Honduras. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are evident across most of the remainder of the basin, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. A few showers are evident off western Panama, but no significant weather is noted elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds across most of the central Caribbean through tonight. Pulsing nightly fresh to strong trades will also affect the waters off central Honduras into Fri night. The high pressure will weaken Sat as it slides eastward toward the central Atlantic, allowing winds to diminish through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An area of showers and thunderstorms is evident about 180 nm to the northeast of the central Bahamas. This cluster is related to a an upper trough to the northeast of the area, and the thunderstorm activity has been weakening over the past several hours. A surface ridge extends across the waters north of 28N anchored by 1021 mb high pressure south of Bermuda near 30N65W. A weak trough extends across the central Bahamas to eastern Cuba. For the waters west of 55W, this pattern is supporting moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds south of 25N and gentle breezes north of 25N, with 3 to 5 ft seas across the region. East of the high pressure, a trough extends from 30N44W to 1014 mb low pressure near 23N49W, to 19N56W. Gentle to moderate NE winds are evident west of 35W, with 4 to 6 ft seas. For the eastern Atlantic, 1027 mb high pressure located northeast of the Azores is supporting fresh to locally strong northerly winds are between the Canary Islands and just offshore southern Morocco. Seas are 6 to 8 ft, highest near the coast of southern Morocco. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough is forecast to meander over the next couple of days, enhancing some storm activity near it. The high pressure will weaken and migrate eastward Fri into Sat. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds will develop off the NE Florida coast starting Fri night into early Sat, ahead of cold front that is expected to move off the Florida coast Sat night. The front will push southeast Sun, and reaching from 30N70W to the Straits of Florida by late Mon. $$ Christensen