000 AXNT20 KNHC 031030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue May 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1025 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic trough the border of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W to 08N17W. The ITCZ extends from 08N17W to 02N30W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from south of 08N and between 35W and NE South America. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1024 mb high pressure system near Bermuda extends southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds prevail across the basin, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf. Seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent across the Gulf waters, except for 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf. A few areas of haze and smoke may be in place across the far southwest Gulf. For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds will continue across the Gulf waters through Thu. Fresh to strong winds are forecast to pulse nightly in the offshore waters north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula through Thu. The high pressure will retreat eastward late this week ahead of an approaching cold front, allowing winds to diminish. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening surface trough extends from the W Atlantic, across the SE Bahamas, eastern Cuba and into the central Caribbean. Isolated showers are noted between Jamaica and the Cayman Islands and offshore NE Nicaragua. Fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail elsewhere. Fresh to strong trades are affecting the central and eastern Caribbean, while moderate to locally fresh winds are noted in the NW Caribbean. Seas of 5-9 ft are present in the central and eastern Caribbean, with the highest seas occurring offshore northern Colombia. Seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent in the rest of the Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure near Bermuda will maintain fresh to strong winds across most of the eastern and central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through Fri. Fresh to locally strong trades will also affect the Gulf of Honduras, pulsing nightly through Fri. The aforementioned surface trough will meander over the next few days, supporting isolated shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly across the Bahamas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic basin, permitting fairly tranquil weather conditions. A surface trough extends from 26N69W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba and there are some isolated showers near the trough, especially near the Turks and Caicos. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are prevalent W of 55W, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Farther east, a cold front drops into the central Atlantic, extending from 31N44W to 29N47W, continuing southward as a surface trough to 17N52W. No deep convection is associated with these features. Moderate to fresh trades are present south of 20N and between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 5-8 ft in the area described. Moderate to fresh NE winds are found in the far NE Atlantic, mainly north of 20N and E of 30W, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Western Sahara. Seas in the region are 5-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough extending across the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba will meander over the next few days, supporting isolated shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly across the Bahamas. The subtropical ridge centered near Bermuda will maintain its influence across the remainder of the area through Thu. Fresh to locally strong trades are likely offshore northern Hispaniola pulsing nightly through Thu. The high pressure will weaken and migrate eastward late this weekend and weekend as a cold front exits the eastern United States. For the waters between 35W and 55W, low pressure may form near 27N45W through mid week, supporting fresh to strong winds within 90 nm on the northwest side of the low pressure. $$ Delgado