000 AXNT20 KNHC 030328 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue May 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 01S30W to 00N42W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02S to 04N between 37W and 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge east to west across the northern Gulf coast. Farther south, the nocturnal trough is forming along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern is supporting light and variable winds and seas 2 ft or less over the northeast Gulf. Fresh to strong E winds are off the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with 3 to 5 ft, and E to SE winds elsewhere with 4 to 6 ft. A few areas of haze and smoke may be in place across the far southwest Gulf. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to support a moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow across the Gulf waters through Thu. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are likely in the offshore waters north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening surface trough extends from the southern Bahamas through the Windward Passage to east of Jamaica. A scatterometer pass from 02 UTC showed fresh to strong E trades winds across the central Caribbean, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere. A few showers and thunderstorms are evident between Jamaica and Grand Cayman. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will sustain fresh to strong winds across most of the eastern and central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through most of the week. Fresh to locally strong trades will also affect the Gulf of Honduras, pulsing nightly Tue through late this week. A surface trough extends across the SE Bahamas, eastern Cuba and into the central Caribbean and it is forecast to meander in the area over the next couple of days. The trough will continue to support some shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly across the Bahamas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough reaches from 25N70W across the southern Bahamas to eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage. A surface ridge dominates north of 27N, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 30N63W. A second trough reaches from 30N45W to 20N60W. Scatterometer and buoy data show moderate to fresh winds across the northern Bahamas ahead of the first trough with generally moderate winds elsewhere west of 55W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft north of 27N and 5 to 7 ft south of 27N west of 55W. Farther east, 1032 mb high pressure is centered near the Azores, maintaining fresh trade winds and 5 to 8 ft south of 20N, gentle to moderate winds north of 20N between 35W and 55W with 3 to 5 ft, and moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 8 ft north of 20N and east of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough through the southern Bahamas is forecast to meander in the area over the next couple of days. The trough will continue to support some shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly across the Bahamas. High pressure positioned near Bermuda will dominate the remainder of the forecast region through Thu. This system will move eastward toward the end of the work week as a cold front exits the eastern of United States. For the waters between 35W and 55W, low pressure may form near 27N45W through mid week, supporting fresh to strong winds within 90 nm on the northwest side of the low pressure. $$ Christensen