000 AXNT20 KNHC 022154 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue May 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2140 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 01N27W to 00N42W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N southward between 20W and 53W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through NE Florida, into the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Fresh SE winds are occurring from 92W westward, where seas are 5-6 ft. Fresh NE to E winds are near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as well as within the Straits of Florida. Gentle SE winds prevail over the NE Gulf with 2-3 ft seas. Smoke and haze are possible in parts of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico due to agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America. A surface ridge, extending from the western Atlantic across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, will continue to support a moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow across the Gulf waters through Thu. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are likely in the offshore waters north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through at least Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from the SE Bahamas to the Windward Passage to Jamaica. An upper-level trough extends over the western Atlantic through the SE Bahamas to near Jamaica. Isolated to scattered showers are noted between the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola, mainly north of 16N. Isolated to scattered showers are also occurring over portions of the SW Caribbean. Scattered tstorms from afternoon heating are occurring over Cuba, Panama, Costa Rica and eastern Nicaragua. Strong trade winds are likely occurring over the south-central Caribbean, south of 16N between 66W-74W. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere east of 80W and north of 10.5N. Moderate trades are in the NW Caribbean, except fresh in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 7-9 ft over the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the E basin, and 4-5 ft in the western Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea will maintain fresh to strong winds across most of the eastern and central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through most of the week. Fresh to locally strong trades will also affect the Gulf of Honduras, pulsing nightly Tue through late this week. A surface trough extending from the SE Bahamas to eastern Cuba will meander across the area over the next couple of days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 25N67W across the Turks and Caicos Islands to the Windward Passage. An upper-level trough over the same area is enhancing scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 19N-27N between 60W-72W. A second surface trough extends from 31N48W to 20N59W. Scattered showers are noted between the second trough and 60W. A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near Bermuda. Moderate to fresh E winds cover the waters west of the second trough to the Straits of Florida, from 27N southward to the Greater Antilles, where seas are 5-7 ft. Gentle anticyclonic winds prevail north of 27N and west of 55W, where seas are 3-6 ft. High pressure near the Azores extends ridging across the subtropical eastern Atlantic Ocean, with mainly gentle winds north of 23N between 30W-50W with seas 4-6 ft. Fresh trades are in the tropical Atlantic from the ITCZ to 16N, where seas are 6-8 ft. Strong to near gale force N to NE winds prevail offshore Morocco and Western Sahara with seas of 7-9 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough extending from the SE Bahamas to eastern Cuba will meander across the area over the next couple of days. High pressure centered just S of Bermuda will dominate the remainder of the forecast region through Thu. The high will move eastward toward the end of the work week as a cold front exits the eastern of United States. $$ Hagen