000 AXNT20 KNHC 021757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon May 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W, to the Equator along 32W, to the Equator along 42W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through NE Florida, into south central Louisiana, to the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 20N97W in the coastal plains of Mexico. An Atlantic Ocean 1025 mb high pressure center is about 100 nm to the northwest of Bermuda. The surface pressure gradient, that exists between the 1025 mb high pressure center, and the comparatively lower pressures that are in northern Mexico, is helping to sustain fresh southerly winds from 90W westward. Fresh E to NE winds are from 23N southward between 90W and 93W, adjacent to the western side of the Yucatan Peninsula. . Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are in the SE Gulf, especially in the Florida Straits. The wave heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the SE Gulf of Mexico. Light and variable winds, and wave heights that range from 1 foot to 3 feet, are in the NE Gulf of Mexico. Smoke and haze persist in parts of the western Gulf of Mexico, due mostly to agricultural fires that are in southern Mexico. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow will persist across the region through Wed night due to a high pressure system over the western Atlantic. The fresh to strong southerly flow over the NW and west-central Gulf will diminish by this afternoon. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are likely in the offshore waters north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through at least Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough, and a surface trough, extend from the Atlantic Ocean near 26N72W, into the Windward Passage. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are affecting the waters and the islands of the Caribbean Sea from 16N northward from 80W eastward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 16N southward from 74W westward, in the area of surface to low level cyclonic wind flow, and the eastern end of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough. Fresh to strong trade winds, and wave heights that range from 5 feet to 9 feet, cover much of the eastern and central sections of the Caribbean Sea. Mostly moderate NE to E winds, and wave heights that range from 2 feet to 5 feet, are elsewhere. High pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea will maintain fresh to strong winds across most of the eastern and central Caribbean through most of the week. The strongest winds will affect the waters offshore NW Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong trades will also affect the Gulf of Honduras, pulsing nightly Tue through late this week. A surface trough stretches across the Turks and Caicos Islands into the Windward passage. The trough will continue moving to the northwest today enhancing storm activity across the SE Bahamas, E Cuba, Haiti and Jamaica. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough, and a surface trough, are along 26N72W, into the Windward Passage. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are in the Atlantic Ocean from 29N southward between 60W and 75W. A second surface trough is along 31N49W 25N56W 19N58W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are in the Atlantic Ocean from 19N northward between 40W and 60W. A 1025 mb high pressure center is about 100 nm to the northwest of Bermuda. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the north and northwest of the two surface troughs. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward from the 31N49W 19N58W surface trough eastward. Moderate to fresh easterly wind flow is from 28N southward between 56W and the Bahamas. The wave heights from 60W westward range from 4 feet to 7 feet. Moderate to fresh trade winds, and wave heights that range from 5 feet to 8 feet, are from 20N southward between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Fresh to strong N-NE winds, and wave heights that range from 5 feet to 8 feet, are from 20N northward from 30W eastward. Africa. Moderate or weaker winds, and wave heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet, cover the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A surface trough stretches across the Turks and Caicos Islands into the Windward passage. The trough will continue moving to the northwest, today enhancing storm activity across the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the SE Bahamas. High pressure will dominate the remainder of the forecast region through midweek, before a cold front exiting the eastern United States pushes the subtropical ridge eastward, weakening it in the process. $$ MT