000 AXNT20 KNHC 011600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun May 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy rain possible over Hispaniola: A surface trough extends from 22N59W across the Dominican Republic. Heavy rainfall is noted just to the south of Hispaniola extending across portions of the Dominican Republic. While the threat for heavy rainfall has diminished east of Hispaniola, periods of heavy rainfall are possible over portions of Hispaniola through tonight as the trough drifts northwestward. The rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Hispaniola, particularly in mountainous terrain. Please consult products issued by your local or national meteorological service for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 00S47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 06N between 06W and 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is evident off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, with high pressure prevailing elsewhere. This pattern is supporting light to gentle winds over the NE Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the western Gulf and 2-4 ft over the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days producing a moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night through midweek. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will briefly set-up across the NW Gulf tonight. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for more information on potential for heavy rain across Hispaniola through tonight. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, locally strong, prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Moderate winds are over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range over the central and eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure N of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong winds over parts of the east and central Caribbean during the next several days. Fresh to strong winds are expected over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia tonight through Thu. A surface trough extending from Dominican Republic across the Atlantic waters to near 22N59W will drift northwestward reaching the Turks and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba on Mon. The combination of this trough with enhanced favorable upper-level dynamics will continue to produce periods of heavy rainfall across the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N50W to 25N62W. A surface trough extends from 22N59W to 17.5N70.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 420 nm east of the front, and within 180 nm of the trough. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the front and trough. Moderate to fresh winds are noted over the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the waters north of 28N between 52W and 63W, and 4-6 ft elsewhere over the waters north of 20N. South of 20N, seas are in the 6-8 ft range. For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough extending from Dominican Republic across the Atlantic waters to near 22N59W will drift northwestward reaching the Turks and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba on Mon. The combination of this trough with enhanced favorable upper-level dynamics will continue to produce periods of heavy rainfall across the area. $$ AL