000 AXNT20 KNHC 300401 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Apr 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential for heavy rain this weekend over Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic: A surface trough extends from near 20N60W to across the Leeward Islands and to the eastern Caribbean near 12N65W. This trough will move northwestward over the eastern and central Caribbean into early next week. The combination of this trough with enhanced favorable upper-level dynamics is likely to result in periods of heavy rainfall over portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic through Sun night. The rains may produce localized flooding across portions of these islands, particularly in mountainous terrain. Please consult products issued by your local or national meteorological service for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Guinea Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W to 02N27W. The ITCZ continues from 02N27W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Convection is scattered and moderate within 90 nm of the monsoon trough and isolated and weak along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough in the NE Gulf is producing scattered moderate convection from 85W-89W between 24N-30N. Scattered moderate convection is also noted near the Tampa Bay region at the tail end of an dissipating stationary boundary. Finally, a few thunderstorms are observed in the eastern Yucatan Channel. Buoy observations indicate mainly moderate SE flow across the basin with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient regime will persist across the area through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds will prevail across the Gulf waters through the forecast period. Fresh to strong nightly pulsing winds are possible off the Yucatan Peninsula Sun through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for more information on potential for heavy rain this weekend for the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Moderate to fresh easterlies dominate the basin with strong NE winds likely in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola and north of Colombia. Seas are 5-7 ft in the Colombian Basin, 4-6 ft in the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean and 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trades pulsing across the Windward Passage and offshore southern Hispaniola tonight through the middle of next week. Fresh to strong NE winds offshore Colombia tonight will become moderate to fresh on Sat and continue through the weekend. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue across the SW Caribbean this weekend into early next week. A surface trough located across the Leeward Islands will move northwestward this weekend and into early next week. A surge of fresh to strong winds will expand over the eastern and central Caribbean late Sat night through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N55W to 25N71W where it continues as a weak stationary boundary to Miami, FL. Convection along the front is weak and marine conditions are generally moderate. The highest ship observation is a 20 kt easterly wind near the northern Bahamas. Seas are generally 5-7 ft, with an altimeter pass revealing 7-9 ft north of 28N. In the central Atlantic, a 1022 mb high pressure centered near 29N43W dominates the pattern. Scatterometer data reveals gentle winds surrounding the high pressure center, gradually increasing to moderate to fresh south of 18N and east of 22W. In the eastern Atlantic, strong NE winds are funneling through the gaps in the Canary Islands. Seas are generally 6-8 ft throughout the central and eastern basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N56W to 25N71W, becoming stationary and continuing to the coast of south Florida. The tail-end of the front is expected to dissipate by tonight. The rest of the cold front will slide southeastward across the forecast waters while losing strength during the weekend. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected behind the front tonight. Seas of 8 ft or greater in N to NE swell accompanying the front will stay N of 28N and E of 70W and is forecast to subside by Sat. A trough is expected to move northwestward into the waters south of 25N this weekend into early next week. . $$ Flynn