000 AXNT20 KNHC 291600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Apr 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential for heavy rain this weekend over Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic: A surface trough extends from 20N60W to the eastern Caribbean near 14N64W. This trough will move northwestward over the eastern and central Caribbean into early next week while accompanied by abundant moisture. This trough, enhanced by favorable upper- level dynamics over the weekend, is likely to produce periods of heavy rainfall over portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic from Fri night through Sun night. The rains may produce localized flooding across portions of these islands. Please consult products issued by your local or national meteorological service for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 09.5N13.5W to 01N22.5W. The ITCZ continues from 01N22.5W to 02S44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 13W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm N of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends over the NW Gulf, with high pressure prevailing elsewhere. Winds are in the gentle to moderate range over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh over the western Gulf. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the NE Gulf and western Gulf, and in the 1-3 ft range elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds will prevail across the Gulf waters through early next week. Fresh to strong nightly pulsing winds are possible off the Yucatan Peninsula Sun through at least Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for more information on potential for heavy rain this weekend for the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft over the south central Caribbean, 2-4 ft over the NW Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will pulse over the Windward Passage and offshore southern Hispaniola tonight through early next week. Fresh to strong easterly winds offshore Colombia will become moderate to fresh today and continue through the weekend. Northerly swell will propagate through the Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages today and will subside by tonight. A trough will move across the eastern and central Caribbean this weekend and into early next week. A surge of fresh to strong winds will expand over this area near the trough late Sat night through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N59W to near 26N71W where it becomes stationary to south Florida. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail west of the front. Farther east, 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 24N35W. Light to gentle winds are noted in the vicinity of the high, with gentle to locally moderate winds prevailing elsewhere north of 20N. Moderate to fresh winds prevail south of 20N. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail over much of the waters west of 25W, and 5-7 ft east of 25W. For the forecast west of 65W, the tail-end of the front is expected to dissipate by tonight into Sat. The rest of the cold front will slide southeastward across the forecast waters while losing strength during the weekend. Fresh NE winds are expected behind the front today, diminishing to moderate to fresh by tonight. Seas of 8 ft or greater in N to NE swell accompanying the front will stay N of 28N and E of 70W and is forecast to subside by Sat. A trough is expected to move northwestward into the waters south of 25N and east of 70W this weekend into early next week. $$ AL