000 AXNT20 KNHC 280923 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Apr 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: In response to a trough of low pressure extending near Morocco and high pressure north of the Canary Islands, gale-force N-NE winds will occur in the Meteo- France forecast area of Agadir. A gale warning is in effect for Agadir through 03Z tonight. Seas of 8 to 12 ft can be expected in the Agadir area. For details please read the High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http:///weather.gmdss.org/II.html ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa at the border of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W to 05N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to the northern coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 20W and 29W, and from 00N to 03N between 44W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from 22N93W to near the western border of Guatemala with Mexico. Scattered showers are possible near the trough in the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a weak ridge of high pressure and weak pressure pattern prevail across the basin. Gentle to moderate winds dominate, locally fresh west-northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the NE Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will build into the region through the end of the week and into the weekend. Winds will increase slightly this weekend into early next week as the pressure gradient across the region tightens. CARIBBEAN SEA... Abundant moisture and divergence aloft is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the SW Caribbean Sea, mainly south of 13N and west of 75W. Similar convection is noted along and offshore portions of the coast of Venezuela. Fresh NE winds are observed in the Windward Passage, with fresh to strong offshore of the southern Dominican Republic, and in the south- central Caribbean offshore of northern Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail elsewhere, except gentle to moderate in the NW Caribbean, and light to gentle just offshore of northern Panama and Costa Rica. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the south- central Caribbean, with seas around 8 ft in NE swell filtering through the Mona and Anegada Passages. Seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail in the NW Caribbean, with 3 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure positioned north of the Caribbean Sea will continue to sustain pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola during the next few days. Similar conditions will occur this morning near the northern coast of Colombia. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail, except gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are forecast in the SW Caribbean today. Northerly swell will propagate through Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages through the end of the week. A surge of wind will accompany a trough that will move through the eastern to central Caribbean this weekend into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning in the Agadir area of Meteo-France. A cold front from just west of Bermuda to near Cocoa Beach, Florida. Isolated weak showers are observed along the frontal boundary, with scattered thunderstorms and frequent lightning having recently developed near the western tail of the front from Cape Canaveral, Florida offshore. Fresh N to NE winds are observed behind the front. A 1018 mb high pressure area is centered southeast of the front near 26.5N70.5W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are near the high, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds elsewhere west of 55W, locally fresh south of 18N. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail west of 65W and northeast of the Bahamas in NE swell. In the central Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N33W to 19N46W. A reinforcing trough is west of the front, from 31N38W to 24N44W to 21N57W, with another trough analyzed southwest of the front from 16N44W to 13N60W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible southeast of the front and along and near the southern trough, and also north of 29N and east of 43W near the northern trough. Fresh to near gale-force winds are occurring north of 22N between roughly 28W and 48W. A large area of northerly swell with seas of 8 ft spreads across the waters north of 19N between 28W and 65W. Seas are peaking around 15 ft near 31N41W. A ridge extends from high pressure north of the Canary Islands southwest through 31N21W to 19N38W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted within 120-180 nm on either side of the ridge axis. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the open tropical Atlantic, except moderate to fresh N-NE from 10N to 20N between Africa and 30W, and fresh to strong from 20N to 30N between Africa and 22W. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate the waters away from the area of larger northerly swell, except locally to 8 ft offshore of Africa. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move southeastward across the forecast waters while weakening through the end of the week. Associated seas of 8 ft or greater will propagate south of 31N tonight, shifting east-southeast north of 28N through the weekend. Fresh N winds are expected behind the front. Seas of 8 ft or greater in N to NE swell east of 67W will continue today, subsiding by the end of the week. A trough is expected to move northwestward into the waters south of 22N and east of 70W this weekend into early next week. $$ Lewitsky