000 AXNT20 KNHC 270400 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Apr 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from 31N41W to 20N60W to 22N70W. Gale to strong gale force SW winds are observed ahead of the front as well as westerly gales behind the front. These winds will decrease to sub-gale by Wednesday afternoon. Seas in the area range from 12-17 ft. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to 01N24W. The ITCZ extends from 01N24W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 05N between the African continent and 25W. Isolated weak convection is observed along the length of the ITCZ, extending up to 180 nm south of the boundary. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to far NE Mexico. Convection has begun to wane tonight, with isolated weak showers lingering along the frontal boundary. Moderate winds prevail over the basin, with fresh NE winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche and fresh easterlies in the southern Florida Straits. Seas are 4-6 ft across the basin, except for 2-4 ft in the NE Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will dig a bit more southward tonight, then stall across the central Gulf through Wed then dissipate. Winds will pulse to fresh and strong offshore north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba this evening. High pressure will return toward the weekend. Hazy conditions remain possible over the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche this evening due to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Abundant moisture and divergence aloft is producing scattered showers across the SW Caribbean Sea, primarily S of 13N as well as within 60 nm of the Nicaraguan coast. Winds are generally moderate to fresh from the NE in the eastern Caribbean with moderate easterlies in the western basin. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage and offshore Colombia. Seas are 3-6 ft across the Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea will support pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola and near the coast of Colombia during the night through Wed night. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail, except gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected in the SW Caribbean this evening. Northerly swell will move into Atlantic waters and through Atlantic passages tonight through the end of the week. A surge of wind will accompany a trough that will move through the eastern to central Caribbean this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warnings currently in effect for the central Atlantic. High pressure centered near 30N75W dominates the western Atlantic. A cold front is approaching the U.S. east coast tonight, bringing scattered moderate convection to the coastal waters. In the central Atlantic, the cold front described in the Special Features section is producing a large are of strong winds that dominates the central Atlantic. Seas in excess of 8 ft are observed between 30W-70W, extending as far south as 20N. Expect very rough seas in areas of near gale and gale force winds closer to the frontal boundary. In the eastern Atlantic, fresh northerly winds are observed along the African coast with moderate conditions elsewhere. Seas in the area are 4-8 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front from 21N55W to 20N60W to 23N71W will continue southeastward, with increasing winds and seas building in its wake, gradually diminishing and subsiding Wed. The remnants of the front in the form of a NE to SW trough may move into the waters south of 22N and east of 70W this weekend. Meanwhile, high pressure will prevail west of 70W through tonight. A cold front will move offshore of N Florida Wed morning, slowly sagging south while weakening through the end of the week. $$ Flynn