000 AXNT20 KNHC 261638 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Apr 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1635 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A reinforcing cold front extends from 31N47W to 23N60W to 31N72W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict a large area of strong to near gale-force winds behind the cold front. Seas of 8 ft or greater are found following the frontal boundary. S-SW winds ahead of the front are forecast to increase to gale-force this afternoon and lift north of 31N by late tonight into early Wed. Very large seas will continue to spread across the open central Atlantic, peaking around 17 ft near 31N between 50W and 55W tonight through Wed. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 02N26W. The ITCZ extends from 02N26W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring S of 07N and E of 29W. Scattered convection is observed S of 02N and between 40W and 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the coast of Alabama, cuts across the Mississippi delta, to the southern coast of Texas. Strong showers and thunderstorms are affecting southern Texas and NE Mexico and some of the activity extends into western Gulf, mainly within 100 nm of the coast. The rest of the basin is dominated by a subtropical ridge positioned east of Florida, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are occurring off the Texas and Tamaulipas coasts in association with the frontal boundary and convection. Moderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere in the Gulf. Seas of 3-6 ft are noted across the basin, except for 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf. Haze and reduced visibilities due to ongoing agricultural fires in portions of Mexico and northern Central America continue across the SW Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will progress slowly eastward-southeastward through tonight, then weaken across the central Gulf through Wed. Winds will pulse to fresh and strong offshore N and W of the Yucatan Peninsula, and W Cuba this evening. High pressure will return toward the weekend. Hazy conditions remain possible over the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche today due to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Abundant moisture and divergence aloft is producing scattered showers across the SW Caribbean Sea, primarily S of 12N. The rest of the basin experiences fairly tranquil weather conditions as a ridge located north of the region dominates. Fresh to locally strong trades are affecting the offshore waters of southern Hispaniola, the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Moderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere. Seas are 3-6 ft across the Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea will support pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola and near the coast of Colombia during the night through Wed night. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail, except gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected south of Cuba, near Jamaica and Haiti through this evening. Northerly swell will move into Atlantic waters and through Atlantic passages by the middle of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warnings currently in effect for the central Atlantic. The aforementioned reinforcing cold front extends from 31N47W southwestward to 23N60W and then northwestward to 31N72W. A few showers are seen ahead of the front, N of 29N. The remnant of the previous cold front is analyzed as a surface trough from 31N40W to 20N62W to 22N71W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to near gale- force cyclonic winds south of the cold front to 21N and between 40W to 67W. Seas of 8-12 ft are noted N of 22N and between 38W and 70W. Farther south, a surface trough is located from 15N57W to 10N61W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 13N to 10N and between 56W and 61W. The rest of the basin is dominated by the Bermuda high near 29N76W and the Azores high near 30N23W, providing fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-8 ft prevail in the rest of the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, the reinforcing cold front will continue southeastward, with winds and seas building in its wake. Meanwhile, high pressure will prevail west of 70W through tonight. A cold front will move offshore of N Florida early Wed, slowly sagging south while weakening through the end of the week. $$ DELGADO