000 AXNT20 KNHC 250603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Apr 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The 24-hour forecast consists of a new cold front, to be forming from 31N50W TO 25N55W to 23N65W. Expect NW-to-N gale-force winds, and wave heights that range from 11 feet to 14 feet, within 30.5N61.5W to 30N63W to 31N64.5W to 31N60.5W to 30.5N61.5W. The gale-force winds are forecast to continue for another 24 hours, after the start of the event. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W, to the Equator along 34W/35W, to 02S40W. Precipitation: numerous strong is from 05N southward between 06W and 10W, and from 01N to 05N between 10W and 20W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 27W and 31W, and from 04N southward between 31W and 42W. Isolated moderate to locally strong covers the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb Atlantic Ocean 32N76W high pressure center, into the northern sections of the Gulf of Mexico, along 30N. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the Florida Keys. Fresh to strong easterly wind flow is in the south central Gulf of Mexico. Fresh easterly winds are in the Atlantic Ocean from 28N southward from the Bahamas westward, including in the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. The wave heights range from 5 feet to 8 feet in the Straits of Florida. The wave heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet in the rest of the eastern one-fourth of the area. The wave heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. A southeastern United States ridge dominates the basin, with moderate to fresh E-SE flow. A cold front will drop across the northern Gulf Tue, and wash out in the central Gulf through Wed. High pressure will return for the end of the week. Hazy conditions are possible in the western Gulf due to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong accompanies the cyclonic wind flow. The eastern end of the eastern Pacific Ocean surface trough is along 09N/10N, through 90W to 76W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 14N southward from 70W westward. Strong NE winds are within 210 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh to moderate NE winds are in the eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh winds cover the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The wave heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet in the central one-third of the area. The wave heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. High pressure, located north of the Caribbean Sea, will support pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and near the coast of Colombia through the week. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail, except gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Northerly swell may move into the Tropical N Atlantic waters by the middle of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the forecast for gale-force winds in the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front passes through 31N48W to 29N50W 26N60W 25N67W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the cold front. The gale-force winds are forecast to develop in the area of a second cold front, in about 24 hours, close to the 31N48W 25N67W front. Fresh winds are within 270 nm to the southeast of the part of the cold front that is from 30N northward. Gentle to moderate winds cover the area that is from 50W eastward, and from the cold front southward between 50W and 60W. Fresh to strong winds are from the cold front northward between 50W and 70W. Moderate to fresh winds are from the cold front southward between 60W and 70W. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet in the Atlantic Ocean. A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 24N43W. A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 23N32W. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 27N16W. A surface trough extends from a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 31N20W, to 23N26W, in between the two high pressure centers. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front from 27N55W to 25.5N67W will reach 20N by mid-week, while several reinforcing troughs move across the waters east of 70W in the wake of the front. Winds will increase and seas will build with each passing trough, and winds are forecast to reach gale-force north of 29N and east of 65W Mon evening, shifting south-southeast through early Tue. Meanwhile, high pres will prevail west of 70W through Tue night. A cold front will move offshore of northern Florida early Wed, slowly sagging south while weakening through the end of the week. $$ mt