000
AXNT20 KNHC 240911
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Apr 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic Ocean at the coast of
Africa near 11N15W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to
03N30W to 01N38W, then resumes west of a surface trough from
06N49W to 10N59W. The surface trough extends from 07N46W to
01S41W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 01N to 06N between 15W and 47W, and from 07N to 10N between
50W and 54W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the southeastern United States.
Moderate to fresh E-SE flow dominates the basin along with seas of
4 to 7 ft. Areas of haze due to agricultural fires over portions
of Mexico is reducing visibilities down to around 3 nm in the
western Gulf. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
far NE Mexico and southern Texas is dissipating as it nears the
Gulf coast.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf 
waters through at least Mon producing mainly a moderate to fresh 
anticyclonic flow. However, fresh to strong winds will continue to
pulse mainly across the SE Gulf and near the Yucatan Peninsula 
through Mon night. A cold front may reach the NW Gulf on Tue, then
wash out over the basin through mid-week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Enhanced by a mid-level low just south of the Yucatan Channel,
convergent trade winds are triggering scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over portions of the NW Caribbean, with
moisture and activity propagating from Honduras and Nicaragua
northeastward toward Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola. Isolated to  
scattered showers are seen farther east, over Puerto Rico and the
Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong NE-E trades along with 5 to 7 ft
seas are occurring near the Windward Passage, as well as south of
Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate easterly trades and seas of 2 to 4
ft are noted over the SW basin. Moderate to fresh easterly trades
and seas of 3 to 6 ft are present across the remainder of the 
basin.

For the forecast, high pressure located north of the Caribbean 
Sea will support pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in 
the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola over 
the next several days. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh 
easterly winds will prevail through next week, except gentle winds
in the SW Caribbean. Northerly swell may move into the Tropical N
Atlantic waters by the middle of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is dropping south of 31N between 56W and 67W with
scattered showers near it and moderate to fresh winds behind it,
along with 6 to 7 ft seas. High pressure is located north of the
area offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina with a ridge
axis extending across the southeastern United States. Moderate to
locally fresh NE-E winds dominate the waters west of 60W along
with 5 to 7 ft seas, with moderate N-NE winds and and 4 to 6 ft
seas elsewhere west of 55W. Moisture is moving northeastward from
the NW Caribbean across Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas and
Turks and Caicos Islands.

To the east, a weakening low pressure area is located near 23N46W
with an attendant trough reaching northwest-north of the low to
near 31N50W. Another trough is located from 31N25W to 16N38W with
moderate SW winds noted within 120 nm to the east of it. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the waters east of
55W, except locally fresh from 13N to 22N between the coast of
Africa and 23W. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft in northerly swell east
of 55W, except 7 to 8 ft north of 13N and east of 24W.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure located north of the 
forecast area will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds 
between the Bahamas and Cuba, including also the Straits of 
Florida through early next week. A cold front will bring an 
increase in winds and seas across the NE waters, particularly 
north of 22N between 55W and 70W Sun through early next week. 
Building seas of up to 12 to 15 ft are expected in the wake of the
front, gradually subsiding by the end of next week. Another cold 
front may move into the waters offshore of NE Florida Wed, washing
out along 27N by the end of next week.

$$
Lewitsky