000 AXNT20 KNHC 232323 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Apr 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near the border of Guinea- Bissau and Guinea to 05N20W. An ITCZ continues from 05N20W through 02N30W to 02N44W. A surface trough is seen farther W, N of Sao Luis, Brazil near 03N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 03N to 07N between 15W and 21W, and from 02N to 04N between 22W and 35W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from the Brazilian coast northward to 08N between 35W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge stretches from a 1027 mb high near the Georgia-S Carolina border across Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico. Fresh with locally strong easterly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are found at the SE and S central Gulf, just N of W Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. Light to gentle winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are present over the NE and E central Gulf. Moderate to fresh ESE to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. Patchy haze due to agricultural fires over S Mexico can reduce visibility down to 5 sm in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through at least Mon, producing mainly a moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow. However, fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse mainly across the SE Gulf and near the Yucatan Peninsula through Mon night. Hazy conditions remain possible over the Bay of Campeche due to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico. A cold front may reach the NW Gulf on Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Enhanced by a mid-level low just S of the Yucatan Channel, convergent trade winds are triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Channel and NW basin, including Cuba and Jamaica. Scattered showers are seen farther E, over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong ENE trades along with 5 to 7 ft seas are occurring near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate E trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted over the SW basin. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and seas of 5 to 6 ft are present across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba and through the Windward Passage tonight into Sun morning. Similar winds will pulse S of Hispaniola over the next several days. Otherwise, the high pressure will support moderate to locally fresh easterly winds through early next week, except gentle winds for the SW Caribbean. Large northerly swell may move into the N Tropical N Atlantic by the middle of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A persistent mid-level trough runs southwestward from near the Azores across 31N40W to N of Hispaniola at 20N72W. This feature is inducing a series of surface troughs across the Atlantic from 20N to 31N between 25W and 60W, causing widely scattered moderate convection in this area. Light to gentle variable winds along with 5 to 7 ft seas are also found in this area. Farther W, moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are occurring from the Bahamas northward to beyond 31N between 60W and the Georgia/Florida coast. Despite light to gentle winds over the E Atlantic, large northerly swell is maintaining 8 to 11 ft seas near the Canary Islands, N of 25N between the NW African coast and 25W. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades with seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail across the tropical Atlantic waters. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure located N of the forecast area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds between the Bahamas and Cuba, and the Straits of Florida through at least Sun night. A cold front will bring an increase in winds and seas across the NE waters, particularly north of 22N between 55W and 65W on Sun. Building seas of up to 12 to 15 ft are expected in the wake of the front. Another cold front may move into the waters offshore of NE Florida Wed. $$ Chan