000 AXNT20 KNHC 231749 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Apr 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1655 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near the border of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W and continues to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from 05N19W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. A surface trough is analyzed along 46W and extends from near the equator to 07N. Isolated moderate convection is found S of the monsoon trough and E of 20W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 08N and between 24W and 49W. GULF OF MEXICO... A high pressure system of 1027 mb is positioned over the SE United States and dominates the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. However, low-level convergence is generating some squally weather over the Florida Straits, southeast and north-central Gulf. Surface observations and a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to fresh E-SE winds prevail across the basin, with the strongest winds occurring in the E Gulf and Florida Straits. Seas of 5-8 ft are prevalent in the Gulf, except for 2-5 ft in the E Bay of Campeche and NE Gulf. Haze due to agricultural fires over portions Mexico and Central America is reducing visibilities as low as 3 nm in the western Gulf. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through early next week producing mainly a moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow. However, fresh to strong winds are still expected over the eastern Gulf and near the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. Fresh to strong winds will then pulse across the same areas during the evening and overnight hours Sun night and Mon night. Hazy conditions are possible over the western Gulf due to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Trade wind convergence over the western Caribbean, especially in the Gulf of Honduras, allows for scattered, fast-moving showers to affect the region. A weak surface trough is analyzed from 19N87W to the northern coast of Honduras as of 1500 UTC. A 1011 mb low pressure is positioned near 10N81W, along a surface trough that extends from the coast of Colombia to southern Costa Rica. A few showers are seen near the trough and low pressure. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail. High pressure to the north sustains fresh trades in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and offshore southern Hispaniola. Moderate or weaker winds are found in the rest of the Caribbean basin. Seas of 4-6 ft are present in the NW and central Caribbean, while 2-4 ft are noted in the SW and E Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba and through the Windward Passage during the evening hours through today, then again early next week. Similar winds will pulse south of Hispaniola through today. Otherwise, the high pressure will support moderate to locally fresh easterly winds through early next week, except gentle in the SW Caribbean. Large northerly swell may move into the northern Tropical N Atlantic by the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates the tropical Atlantic, resulting is fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between a 1027 mb subtropical ridge over the SE United States and lower pressures across the western Caribbean maintains moderate to fresh winds over the waters west of 68W, except for fresh to strong trades between the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba. Seas of 5-8 ft are prevalent in the waters W of 68W. Recent scatterometer satellite data depict a few weak surface troughs in the north- central Atlantic and a weak 1015 mb low pressure near 23N46W. These features are not producing any significant convection. Gentle to moderate winds prevail in the central and eastern Atlantic. Northerly swell is producing seas of 6-8 ft N of 17N and between 60W and 25W. Stronger winds north of 31N in the NE Atlantic result in a more robust northerly swell generating seas of 8-12 ft N of 25N and E of 25W. Elsewhere in the basin, seas range between 3 and 6 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure located north of the forecast area will support fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas south of 26N and west of 75W, including the Straits of Florida through today. A cold front will bring an increase in winds and seas across the NE waters, particularly north of 22N between 55W and 65W on Sun. Building seas of up to 12 to 15 ft are expected in the wake of the front. Another cold front may move into the waters offshore of NE Florida Wed. $$ DELGADO