000 AXNT20 KNHC 230806 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Apr 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 12N16W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to northeast of the coast of Brazil at the equator near 38W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted 00N to 03N between 17W and 20W, within 120 nm northwest of the ITCZ between 29W and 38W, and south of 10N between 38W and 53W. GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range, except 7 to 9 ft in the southeast Gulf through the Straits of Florida. Haze due to agricultural fires over portions Mexico and Central America is reducing visibilities as low as 3 nm in the western Gulf. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through early next week producing mainly a moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow. However, fresh to strong winds are still expected over the eastern Gulf and near the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. Fresh to strong winds will then pulse across the same areas during the evening and overnight hours Sun night and Mon night. Hazy conditions are possible over the western Gulf due to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure prevails north of the region. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail across the Caribbean waters, except fresh to strong in the lee of Cuba and across the approach to the Windward Passage. Seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range over the NW Caribbean with 2 to 5 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba and through the Windward Passage during the evening hours through today, then again early next week. Similar winds will pulse south of Hispaniola through today. Otherwise, the high pressure will support moderate to locally fresh easterly winds through early next week, except gentle in the SW Caribbean. Large northerly swell may move into the northern Tropical N Atlantic by the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Ridging prevails over the waters west of 68W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure across the western Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the waters west of 68W, except fresh to strong through and west of the Bahamas through the Straits of Florida and near the approach to the Windward Passage. Seas in the 5 to 8 ft range prevail over the open waters west of 68W. A weak surface trough is just to the east from 31N66W to 27N65W as noted in early scatterometer data. Low pressure of 1015 mb is centered near 22.5N45.5W, Moderate to fresh winds prevail north of the low, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. A surface trough extends from 28N38W to 20N39W to 13N38W, and a second trough extends from 29N34W to 23N32W. A weak 1018 mb high pressure area is centered west of the Canary Islands near 27.5N23W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4 to 7 ft, prevail elsewhere, except moderate to fresh winds from 14N to 22N between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure located north of the forecast area will support fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas south of 26N and west of 75W, including the Straits of Florida through today. A cold front will bring an increase in winds and seas across the NE waters, particularly north of 22N between 55W and 65W on Sun. Building seas of up to 12 to 15 ft are expected in the wake of the front. Another cold front may move into the waters offshore of NE Florida Wed. $$ Lewitsky