313 AXNT20 KNHC 230532 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Apr 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W, 04N25W, to the Equator along 37W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 90 nm to 270 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 28W and 33W, from 04N to 06N between 41W and 43W, and from 05N to 08N between 48W and 51W. Isolated moderate to locally strong covers the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, to SE Louisiana, toward the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to inland Mexico near 18N97W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 27N southward from 90W eastward. Fresh to locally strong winds are in the SE Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet. A ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through early next week producing mainly a moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow. However, fresh to strong winds are still expected in the eastern Gulf, and near the Yucatan Peninsula, tonight through Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will then pulse across the same areas during the evening and overnight hours Sun night and Mon night. Hazy conditions are possible in the western Gulf, due to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 10N81W, in broad surface-to-low level cyclonic wind flow. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N southward from 75W westward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 15N northward from Hispaniola westward. Moderate to locally fresh winds span the Caribbean Sea waters. The wave heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet in the NW Caribbean Sea. The wave heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet elsewhere. wind speeds and slower are near the second surface trough. High pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba and through the Windward Passage during the evening hours through Sat, then again early next week. Similar winds will pulse south of Hispaniola through Sat. Otherwise, the high pressure will support moderate to locally fresh easterly winds through early next week, except gentle in the SW Caribbean. Large northerly swell may move into the northern Tropical N Atlantic by the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 66W/67W from 27N to 31N. Fresh N to NE winds are within 180 nm to the northwest and west of the 66W/67W surface trough. Strong NE winds are in the Straits of Florida between 79W and 81W. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere from Cuba northward from the Bahamas westward and northwestward. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from 60W westward A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 23N45W. The wave heights range from 7 feet to 11 feet from 20N northward between 20W and 60W. The comparatively highest wave heights are near 28N48W. Fresh NE winds are from 300 nm to 600 nm of the center in the N quadrant. Moderate NE winds are elsewhere from 20N northward between 45W and 70W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet from 20N southward from the eastern Caribbean Sea islands eastward. Mostly moderate to some fresh winds are from 05N to 18N between 45W and 60W. Moderate NE winds are from 03N to 14N between 30W and 40W. One surface trough is along 37W/39W from 13N to 19N. Gentle winds are within 180 nm on either side of the first surface trough. A second surface trough is along 32W/34W from 25N to 28N. Fresh winds are within 920 nm to the southeast of the second surface trough. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 27N23W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet from the Canary Islands northward from 20W eastward. High pressure located north of the forecast area will support fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas south of 26N and west of 75W, including the Straits of Florida through Sat. A cold front will bring an increase in winds and seas across the NE waters, particularly north of 22N between 55W and 65W on Sun. Building seas of up to 12 to 15 ft are expected in the wake of the front. Another cold front may move into the waters offshore of NE Florida Wed. $$ mt