000
AXNT20 KNHC 222254
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Apr 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N16W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to the coast of
Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
05S to 11N between 10W and 16W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is from 05S to 07N between 30W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a 1030 mb 
high pressure centered near 33N78W. Fresh to locally strong winds
prevail over the SE Gulf of Mexico, with moderate to fresh winds
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range. 

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through 
early next week producing mainly a moderate to fresh anticyclonic
flow. However, fresh to strong winds are still expected over the
eastern Gulf and near the Yucatan Peninsula tonight through Sat 
night. Hazy conditions are possible over the Bay of Campeche due 
to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails north of the area. Moderate to locally 
fresh winds prevail across the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the
5-7 ft range over the NW Caribbean with 2-5 ft seas elsewhere.  

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea 
will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the lee of 
Cuba, and in the Windward Passage during the evening hours 
through Sat. Afterward, high pressure over the SE U.S. should 
sustain moderate to fresh easterly winds Sun through early next 
week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ridging prevails over the waters west of 70W, anchored by a 1030
mb high north of the area near 33N78W. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and low pressure across the
western Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong winds over the
waters west of 70W. Seas in the 6-8 ft range prevail over the
open waters west of 70W. Low pressure of 1015 mb is centered
near 23N46W. Fresh to strong winds prevail north of the low,
with seas in the 8-11 ft range. A surface trough extends from 
30N66W to 26N65W, and a second trough extends from 31N29W to 
15N41W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, 
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure located N of the 
forecast area will sustain fresh to strong NE winds and rough 
seas to the west of a line from Bermuda to the central Bahamas, 
including the Straits of Florida through Sat. A cold front will 
bring an increase in winds and seas across the NE waters, 
particularly between 55W and 65W on Sun. These marine conditions 
will spread westward, covering mainly the waters N of 27N and E 
of 67W on Mon. Building seas of up to 13 or 14 ft are expected in
the wake of the front. 

$$
AL