000 AXNT20 KNHC 212100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Apr 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W to 03S41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 03N between 25W-33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A large surface ridge extends from 1037 mb high pressure centered off the coast of New England through the Lower Mississippi Valley and into Texas. A recent scatterometer satellite pass shows this is supporting fresh to strong winds over the southeast and south- central Gulf, where seas approaching 8 ft. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft wave heights are noted elsewhere. A few showers are evident just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Smoke and haze mainly due to agricultural are reducing visibility over the Bay of Campeche and along the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico. For the forecast, the fresh to strong E-NE winds over the eastern and south-central Gulf will continue tonight through Sat night, including the Straits of Florida and areas near the north and west coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula. The strongest winds should occur tonight and Fri night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will prevail elsewhere. Hazy conditions are will continue to be possible over the southwest Gulf due to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A pair of surface trough extend from eastern Cuba to near San Andres Island in the southwest Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean west of the troughs. Gentle to moderate E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except for light breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas over the far southwest Caribbean, south of 12N. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted over the Caribbean at this time. For the forecast, strong high pressure located off New England will support fresh to locally strong ENE winds across the NW Caribbean, with pulses of primarily strong ENE winds south of Cuba and in the Windward Passage during the evening hours tonight through early this weekend. Afterward, high pressure over the SE U.S. should sustain moderate to fresh easterly winds Sun through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is along 31N62W through the central Bahamas. Buoy observations and a scatterometer satellite pass from 15 UTC showed a large area of fresh to strong NE winds north of the front. Wave heights are 7 to 10 ft north of the front over open waters. Farther east, a 1014 mb low pressure area is centered near 27N44W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are noted within 120 nm in the northwest semicircle of the low, with seas estimated to be 8 to 12 ft. Gentle to moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident elsewhere west of 35W. Farther east, strong to near-gale force winds persist off Morocco with 8 to 10 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the front is expected to dissipate on Fri as it retreats slowly northward. High pressure located off New England will sustain fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to the west of a line from Bermuda to the central Bahamas through early this weekend, including the Straits of Florida. Winds and seas will diminish this Sun into early next week. A cold front is expected to enter the NE waters between 55W-65W on Sun, and extend from 27N55W to 31N66W by early Mon. Strong to near gale force NW winds are likely to the north of the front, along with building seas to the east of 65W. $$ Christensen