000 AXNT20 KNHC 211020 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Apr 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale-Force Wind Warning off Morocco: Gale force N winds continue within 120 nm of the coast of Morocco due to the pressure gradient between the Azores High and lower pressure over North Africa. The gale-force wind conditions are forecast to continue until 18Z today. It is possible for the wave heights to be ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet in the areas of the fastest wind speeds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 01N22W. The ITCZ continues from 01N22W to 01N34W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of 06N between 24W and the coast of South America. Similar convection is south of 06N between 00W and 08W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida W to 23N86W. The front is forecast to dissipate by this afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted within 90 nm either side of a line extending from the W end of the stationary front to Brownsville, TX. Fresh to locally strong E-ESE winds are in the eastern Gulf. Moderate ESE-SE winds prevail over the western Gulf. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail over the basin, except up to 8 ft in the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, strong high pressure over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Coast will produce pulsing fresh to strong E winds over the eastern and south-central Gulf through Sat afternoon, including the Straits of Florida and areas near the north and west coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula. The strongest winds should occur this evening and again Fri evening. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will prevail elsewhere. Hazy conditions are possible over the SW Gulf due to smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper level trough extends from the NW Bahamas to Honduras. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms prevail over portions of the central and west-central Caribbean from 14N-19N between 68W-84W. Fresh to locally strong ENE winds are occurring in the NW Caribbean north of 19N and south of Cuba. Moderate to fresh trades are in the E Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds extend over portions of the SW and central basin. Seas are 5-7 ft in the NW Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the E Caribbean, 3-5 ft over the central basin and 2-4 ft in the SW basin. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area should maintain fresh ENE winds across the NW Caribbean, with pulses of strong ENE winds south of Cuba and in the Windward Passage during the evening hours this evening through Fri evening. Afterward, high pressure building over the SE U.S. should sustain moderate to fresh easterly winds through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect in the far E Atlantic near the coast of Morocco. Please see the Special Features section above. A stationary front is along 31N63W through the NW Bahamas to the Straits of Florida near 24N81W. Fresh to strong NE-ENE winds prevail over much of the area NW of the front, including over the Bahamas. Similar winds are occurring to the SE of the front over the SE Bahamas. Seas of 8-10 ft prevail east of the Bahamas, with seas to 7 ft just off the coast of Florida. Two pre-frontal troughs are noted to the east of the front. An upper-level trough and the surface troughs are enhancing scattered showers and isolated tstorms inside a box with corners 21N77W to 31N65W to 31N54W to 19N68W to 21N77W. Somewhat lower winds and seas are occurring near and within a few hundred nm east of the surface trough that extends from 31N62W to from 25N66W. Farther E, a 1014 mb low pressure is near 27N38.5W. Scattered moderate convection is west of the low from 26N-31N between 38W-44W. Strong NE to E winds are in the northern semicircle, north of 29.5N between 35W-44W. Seas in the area are 9 to 11 ft. Seas are generally 6-7 ft elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, the west Atlantic stationary front is expected to retreat slightly NW today before dissipating on Fri. This feature coupled with strong high pressure over the U.S. Mid- Atlantic coast will sustain fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to the west of a line from Bermuda to the central Bahamas through Fri evening, including the Straits of Florida. Winds and seas should gradually diminish this weekend. The low pressure near 27N38.5W will continue producing strong winds through tonight before gradually weakening Fri into Sat. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move south of 31N on Sun, and extend from 31N45W to 27N55W to 31N66W by early Mon. Strong to near gale force NW winds are likely to the north of the front, along with building seas. $$ Hagen