000 AXNT20 KNHC 210550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Apr 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale-Force Wind Warning off Morocco: A 1020 mb high pressure center is in NE Morocco. Gale-force winds have been reported in the METEO-FRANCE areas of Agadir and Tarfaya. The gale-force wind conditions are forecast to continue until 09z today. It is possible for the wave heights to be ranging from 12 feet to 14 feet in the areas of the fastest wind speeds. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by Meteo-France, at the website, http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W, to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W, to 02N30W, 01N40W, and to the Equator along 49W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. Numerous strong is inland in South America, from 01S to 05N between 52W and 58W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, to the coast of Mexico near 22N98W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong E to SE winds cover the area. The wave heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet in the NW waters, and from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. A few observations in the Mexican state of Veracruz were reporting moderate visibility in haze and smoke, due in part to agricultural fires in southern Mexico. A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida westward to near 23N88W. It will dissipate gradually through Fri. A strengthening high over the Mid-Atlantic States will produce pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds over the eastern and southern Gulf tonight through Sat afternoon, including the Straits of Florida and areas near the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are expected over the entire Gulf by Sun, diminishing Mon. Fresh to strong northeast to east will develop in the eastern Bay of Campeche and along the norther Yucatan Peninsula Mon night. Hazy conditions will persist in the western and central Gulf through at least Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper level trough extends from NE Florida, to the NW Bahamas, to the Gulf of Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N northward from 72W westward. Isolated to widely scattered moderate also is between 64W and 72W. Localized flooding is possible in eastern Cuba, with locally heavy rainfall amounts. An example is that: Las Tunas in eastern Cuba, reported yesterday morning 82.1 mm (3.2 inches) of rain during the last 24 hours. The upper level trough will move eastward during the next 48 hours. The likelihood of rainshowers with thunder remains in the same area. Fresh NE winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Fresh to locally strong NE winds have been in the lee of Cuba. A broad cyclonic circulation has been in the SW Caribbean Sea, where mainly gentle winds prevail. Moderate to fresh winds cover the remainder of the area. The wave heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet, except for the range of 5 feet to 6 feet in the Yucatan Channel. A weakening stationary front in the Straits of Florida and N of the Yucatan Channel should maintain fresh NE winds in the NW Caribbean Sea, with pulses of strong NE winds south of Cuba during the evening hours this evening through Fri evening. Afterward, high pressure building over the SE U.S. should sustain moderate to fresh easterly winds through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force winds that are in the METEO-FRANCE areas of AGADIR and TARFAY. A stationary front is along 31N64W to 27N70W, through the Bahamas, beyond the Straits of Florida. Strong NE winds are within 150 nm to the south of the stationary front between 72W and 76W. Mostly fresh to some strong winds are elsewhere from Cuba northward from 70W westward. Strong NE winds are elsewhere on the northern side of the stationary front. The wave heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from the stationary front northward. One NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is about 120 nm to the SE of the stationary front between 62W and 66W. A second NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is about 200 nm to the SSE of the stationary front between 69W and 72W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 440 nm to the southeast of the stationary front. A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 27N38W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate/isolated to widely scattered strong is about 210 nm to the northwest of the 1014 mb low pressure center. Widely scattered moderate is from 150 nm to 300 nm of the 1014 mb low pressure center in the eastern quadrant. The wave heights range from 6 feet to 10 feet from 20N northward between 20W and 40W. The comparatively highest wave heights are near 29N27W. Fresh to strong cyclonic winds are within 480 nm of the center in the north quadrant. Strong to near gale-force, and gale-force winds, are from 24N northward from 20W eastward. Fresh NE to E winds are from 26N northward between 20W and 32W. Fresh to moderate winds cover the rest of the area that is from 40W westward. A stationary front extends from 31N64W across the NW Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. It is expected to retreat slightly NW Thu before dissipating on Fri. This feature will sustain fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas across the W Atlantic through Fri evening. Strong winds will pulse in the Florida Straits during this period. Winds and seas should diminish gradually this weekend. A late-season cold front could bring strong to near-gale winds and rough seas to the central Atlantic Ocean early next week, potentially affecting areas east of 65W and north of 25N. $$ MT/AH