000 AXNT20 KNHC 202314 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Apr 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning off Morocco: A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1032 mb centered over the Azores and lower pressures over northwestern Africa supports gale force winds, with severe gusts, across the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya in the Meteo-France area of responsibility. These conditions are forecast to continue to at least 21/09 UTC. An earlier ASCAT pass confirmed the presence of gale force winds in the area. Seas are likely 12-14 ft within the area of gales. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues SW to near 05N18W. The ITCZ extends from 05N18W to 02N30W to 01N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Convection is limited. However, clusters of moderate to strong convection are over Brazil near the western end of the ITCZ axis. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered over the Carolinas extends a ridge across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico while a stationary front extends across the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf. The high pressure is producing fresh to locally strong E to SE winds across most of the Gulf region. Seas are 6 to 8 ft over the NW waters, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except across the coastal waters of W Florida, and along the coast of the Mexican states from Campeche to Veracruz. A few observations in the Mexican state of Veracruz were reporting moderate visibility in haze and smoke, due in part to agricultural fires over southern Mexico. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will gradually dissipate through Thu. A strengthening high over the Mid-Atlantic States will produce pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds over the E and S central Gulf tonight through Sat afternoon, including the Straits of Florida and areas near the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds should dominate the entire Gulf by Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper-level trough reaches from off northeast Florida to the NW Bahamas into the Gulf of Honduras. An associated surface trough extends from the western Atlantic near 28N66W to across Haiti. Abundant low-level moisture, combined with a diffluence pattern aloft on the southeast side of the trough continues to support showers, with embedded thunderstorms over Hispaniola and regional waters, and also over eastern Cuba where locally heavy rainfall, with localized flooding is possible. For example, Las Tunas in eastern Cuba reported this morning 82.1 mm (3.2 inches) of rain during the last 24 hours. The upper-level trough will shift eastward over the next 48 hours keeping the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms across the same area. Scatterometer data indicate fresh to locally strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba. A broad cyclonic circulation is over the SW Caribbean where mainly gentle winds prevail. Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere, with the exception of moderate to fresh SE winds near and S of La Mona Island. These winds are on the E side of the above mentioned surface trough. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft across the basin, except 5-6 ft in the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the weakening stationary front across the Florida Straits and N of the Yucatan Channel should maintain fresh NE winds across the NW Caribbean, and pulses of strong NE winds just S of Cuba through Fri evening. Afterward, high pressure building over the SE U.S. might sustain moderate to fresh easterly winds through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for information on the East Atlantic Gale Warning. A cold front extends from near Bermuda to 27N70W where it transitions to a stationary front and continues over Nassau in the Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong NE winds are evident west of the front, with 6 to 9 ft seas over open waters. A surface trough is ahead of the front reaching from 28N66W to northern Haiti. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms are noted within about 120 nm east of the trough. Recent scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong trade winds south of 22N to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Buoy reports show seas to be 5 to 7 ft in this region. Farther east, a weak low pressure of 1015 mb persists over the eastern Atlantic near 27N37W. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of the low with 9 to 11 ft seas. Similar wind speeds are seen between the Canary Islands. Elsewhere moderate to fresh easterly winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are evident north of 24N east of 40W, except for the gale conditions off Morocco. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident across the remainder of the area. For the forecast west of 55W, the mid to upper-level trough previously mentioned will continue to enhance showers and thunderstorms roughly between 60W and 70W, including also the Turks and Caicos Islands over the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, the stationary front is expected to retreat slightly NW Thu before dissipating on Fri. This feature will sustain fresh to strong NE winds and higher seas across the W Atlantic through Fri evening. Strong winds will pulse in the Florida Straits during this period. Winds and seas in this area should diminish this weekend. A late-season cold front might bring strong to near-gale winds and rough seas to the central Atlantic early next week. $$ GR