076 AXNT20 KNHC 200530 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Apr 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: A very tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1034 mb centered just north of the Azores and lower pressures over western Africa supports gale force winds, with severe gusts, across the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya in the Meteo-France area of responsibility. These conditions are forecast to continue to at least 21/00 UTC. An altimeter pass shows seas of 11-12 ft within the area of gales. Seas are expected to be very rough, potentially building to 12- 15 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea/Guinea-Bissau border near 10N15W to 04N21W. The ITCZ extends from 04N21W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from 25N80W to 22N88W to 24N95W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are noted behind the front in the eastern Gulf. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are noted over the NW Gulf based on scatterometer data. Based on buoy data, seas are ranging from 7-9 ft in the northeast Gulf, 5-7 ft in the NW Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Satellite imagery indicate that a narrow line of clouds is associated with the front. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall just N of the Yucatan Channel and over the Florida Straits later tonight. Fresh NE winds N of the front will persist through tonight, before shifting to E and SE Wed. Afterward, a strengthening high over the Mid-Atlantic States will cause fresh to strong easterly winds over the E and S central Gulf Wed evening through early Thu morning, including the Yucatan Channel and the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh E to SE return flow should dominate the entire Gulf by the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad upper level trough has reflected at the surface enhancing convection over eastern Cuba and Jamaica, including the Windward Passage. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also noted over Hispaniola under a diffluent pattern aloft. Abundant moisture will persist over eastern Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola over the next 24 hours, supporting locally heavy rainfall and possible localized flooding. Based on the most recent scatterometer data, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are noted over the NW Caribbean, mainly N of 18N. Moderate trades dominate the remainder of the basin. Seas are generally 5-7 ft across the east and central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, a weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel overnight and stall just N of the basin through Thu evening, bringing fresh NE winds across the NW Caribbean tonight through the remainder of the week. Pulses of strong winds are possible across waters S of Cuba on Wed and Thu nights. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for information on the East Atlantic Gale Warning. A cold front is moving off the SE Florida coast, extending from 31N69W to 25N80W. A narrow line of scattered showers is noted ahead of the front, mainly between 64W-70W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted behind the cold front with seas of 3-6 ft. Upper diffluence ahead is enhancing numerous showers and thunderstorms across the waters between 65W and 75W, including N of Cuba and Hispaniola. Satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh to strong winds N of 25N to about 66W. To the east, a 1014 mb low is analyzed near 26N34W. A well defined swirl of mainly low clouds is related to the low. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a 1034 mb high pressure located just N of the Azores near 41N25W. Seas are 11-13 ft between this high pressure and aforementioned low pressure. For the forecast west of 55W, the mid to upper-level trough nearby will continue to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity through Wed from the SE Bahamas and northward to 31N. The above mentioned cold front will stall from Bermuda across the NW Bahamas to the Florida Straits through the next 24 hours. This front will slowly weaken through the end of the week. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will prevail NW of the front through Thu evening. $$ ERA