000 AXNT20 KNHC 191641 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Apr 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: A very tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1036 mb centered north of the Azores and lower pressures over western Africa will allow for gale-force north winds to develop along and near the coast of Morocco today, 19/1200 UTC through at least Wed morning, 20/12000 UTC. Seas are expected to be rough, potentially building to 12-15 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea/Guinea-Bissau border near 11N15W to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from 05N19W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 14W and 24W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03S to 04N between 27W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Naples, Florida to 24N88W to 25N94W. Fresh to strong north-northeasterly winds are noted behind the front in the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted in the western Gulf. Based on buoy data, seas are ranging from 7-9 ft in the northeast Gulf, 4-6 ft in the western Gulf, and seas 3-5 ft in the southeast Gulf. No significant convection is noted along this front. For the forecast, Winds north of the front will diminish to moderate to fresh later this afternoon. The front will stall this evening from the Florida Straits westward to 23N90W. Fresh to strong E winds are forecast Wed night through Thu night over portions of the S and E Gulf, including near the Yucatan Peninsula and Florida Straits. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad surface trough extends along eastern Cuba. This trough is supported by a broad mid to upper-level troughing that reaches southward from the western Atlantic to the central Caribbean. This set-up of these features has perturbed the weather pattern over most of the central Caribbean waters. Scattered thunderstorms are noted off the SE coast of Cuba and north of Jamaica. Isolated thunderstorms are noted in the central Caribbean, south of Jamaica and Haiti. A 1009 mb low is analyzed near 11N78W. Scattered moderate convection is off the coasts of Colombia and Panama, S of 12N between 75W and 79W. Gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean with seas 4-7 ft. Light to gentle northerly winds are noted in the NW basin with 2-4 ft seas. The heavy rainfall threat has diminished moderately for Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. However, scattered thunderstorms could still produce daily rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches over the next couple of days, with localized flooding possible. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist over the N central Caribbean near Jamaica and E Cuba through this evening. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the E Caribbean through Thu afternoon, then become moderate by Thu evening. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel tonight and stall just N of the basin through Thu, bringing fresh NE winds across the NW Caribbean tonight through the remainder of the week. Pulses of strong winds are possible across waters S of Cuba during this period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for information on the East Atlantic Gale Warning. A cold front is moving off the SE Florida coast, extending from 31N75W to near West Palm Beach, Florida. Scattered showers are noted along and within 60 nm of the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted behind the cold front with seas 3-6 ft. A broad trough extends from 30N73W to eastern Cuba near 22N77W. This trough and a mid- to upper-level trough is enhancing numerous moderate scattered strong convection from 22N to 31N between 66W and 76W. Seas are 6-8 ft near the trough. In the eastern Atlantic, strong high pressure of 1036 mb is centered north of the Azores. Its related tight gradient is producing strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas north of 27N and east of 38W. Seas are 10-15 ft in the area. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds will continue E of the trough in the western Atlantic through this afternoon. A mid to upper-level trough will continue to enhance thunderstorm activity through at least tonight from the SE Bahamas and northward to 28N. This cold front will reach from 31N70W across the NW Bahamas to the Florida Straits this evening, then stall Wed from Bermuda to the Florida Straits. The front will slowly weaken through the end of the week. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will prevail NW of the front tonight through Thu. $$ AReinhart