000 AXNT20 KNHC 191042 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Apr 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: A very tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1035 mb centered north of the Azores and lower pressures over western Africa will allow for gale-force north winds to develop along and near the coast of Morocco later today, with seas building to 12-15 ft. These conditions are forecast to continue into Wed. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of the Guinea/Guinea-Bissau border near 11N15W, and extends south-southwest to 04N18W and to 03N22W. The ITCZ extends from 03N22W to 02N36W to 01S42W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is from 00N-05N between 14W-23W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-04N between 29W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from Ft. Myers, FL to 25N86W to 25N91W, then stationary to 25N93W. Strong NE winds are occurring north of the front east of 91W. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere north of the front. Seas with these winds are currently reaching 8 ft. NOAA buoy 42039 located near 28.8N 86.0W recorded winds 27 kt gusting to 33 kt and seas of 8 ft at 0900 UTC. Isolated thunderstorms have recently developed along the front between 85.5W-88.5W. Elsewhere over the Gulf to the south of the front, moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas 3-4 ft prevail. For the forecast, winds north of the front will diminish to moderate to fresh by this afternoon. The front will stall this evening from the Florida Straits westward to 23N90W. Fresh to strong E winds are forecast Wed night through Thu night over portions of the southern and eastern Gulf, including near the Yucatan Peninsula and Florida Straits. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad surface trough extends across eastern Cuba to Jamaica. This feature is supported by broad mid to upper-level troughing that reaches southward from the western Atlantic to the central Caribbean. This set-up of these features has perturbed the weather pattern over most of the central Caribbean waters. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms prevail over the central Caribbean between 75W-82W. Some lighter showers are also possible farther east, to the south of the Dominican Republic. Fresh east winds are occurring east of 75W. Generally gentle N to NE winds are west of 76W, with the exception of fresh NE winds that have recently entered the NW corner of the Caribbean. Seas are 6-7 ft east of 75W and 2-5 ft elsewhere. The heavy rainfall threat has diminished moderately for Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. However, scattered thunderstorms could still produce daily rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches over the next couple of days, with localized flooding possible. For the forecast, a mid to upper-level trough will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of the north-central Caribbean through today. Fresh trades will prevail over the eastern Caribbean through today. As the trough moves eastward, winds will diminish to moderate to locally fresh by tonight in the eastern Caribbean. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel tonight and stall just N of the basin through Thu, bringing fresh NE winds across the NW Caribbean through the remainder of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for information on the East Atlantic Gale Warning. A cold front extends from 31N76W to Vero Beach, FL, as of 0900 UTC. Scattered showers and tstorms are near the front. A surface trough extends from 31N74W to eastern Cuba near 21N74W. A mid- to upper-level trough is enhancing numerous moderate scattered strong convection from 22N-26N between 68W-75W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 22N-31N between 62W-76W. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are east of the surface trough to 65W, where seas are 7-9 ft. Fresh to strong N winds are occurring NW of the cold front, where seas are up to 7 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, strong high pressure of 1035 mb is centered north of the Azores. Its related tight gradient is producing strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas north of 27N and east of 38W. Seas are 10-15 ft in the area. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SE to S winds E of the surface trough will continue through today, expanding northward toward 31N this morning as the trough moves eastward. A mid to upper-level trough will continue to enhance thunderstorm activity through at least tonight east of the Bahamas and north of the Greater Antilles. The aforementioned cold front will reach from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas to the Florida Straits this evening, then stall Wed from Bermuda to the Florida Straits. The front will slowly weaken through the end of the week. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will prevail NW of the front through Thu. $$ Hagen