000 AXNT20 KNHC 182305 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Apr 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force N winds are expected to develop near the coast of Morocco on Tuesday, with seas building to greater than 12 ft. Please see the latest forecast from Meteo- France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. Heavy Rainfall from Bahamas southward to the Greater Antilles: A mid to upper-level trough stretching from the Bahamas to the central Caribbean Sea is resulting in scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms near portions of the SE Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, eastern Jamaica, and the adjacent Caribbean and Atlantic waters. Enhanced by favorable upper-level winds, periods of heavy rainfall are anticipated for these locations through Tue. There is potential for flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Looking ahead, a robust mid-latitude trough digging southeastward from offshore the SE U.S. toward the Caribbean Sea will reinforce the mid-level trough and upper-level diffluence over this area during midweek. As a result, this rainy pattern could persist through Thu. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and extends to 05N16W to 03N27W. The ITCZ continues from 03N27W to 02N38W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 12W and 20W. Isolated weak convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 32W and 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... Earlier this afternoon, a cold front extended from the Florida Panhandle to 27N92W, then continued as a stationary front to the southern Texas coast. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and building seas have developed over the northern Gulf in association with the frontal passage. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail across the rest of the basin under the influence of weak high pressure. For the forecast, strong northerly winds will develop in the NE Gulf by tonight as the front pushes southward across the eastern basin. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh by Tue as the front stalls across the southern Gulf. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse tonight along the NW Yucatan Peninsula waters associated with a diurnal trough. Meanwhile, patchy areas of smoke may reduce visibility across portions of the southwest Gulf of Mexico, south of 25N and west of 93W. Fresh to strong E winds are forecast late Wed into Fri near the Yucatan Peninsula, Florida Straits, and southeast Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section for information on the potential for heavy rainfall over E Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola. A broad surface trough extends across central Cuba to the northern Caribbean Sea. This feature is supported by a mid-level low that is causing some scattered thunderstorms in the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted across the eastern Caribbean, with 6-8 ft seas. A weak low pressure center remains over the Colombian Basin, where winds are light to gentle and seas are generally 2-4 ft. For the forecast, a mid to upper-level trough will continue to enhance heavy showers and thunderstorms across portions of the north-central Caribbean through Tue. Fresh to locally strong trades over the eastern Caribbean will prevail through tonight. As the trough moves eastward over the next couple of days, winds will diminish to moderate to locally fresh by Tue in the eastern Caribbean. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach of the Yucatan Channel by Tue night and stall through Thu, bringing moderate to fresh NE winds across the NW basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for information on the East Atlantic Gale Warning and the heavy rainfall event affecting the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Recent satellite and lightning data indicate scattered showers and thunderstorms continue near and to the north and east of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands this evening. Altimeter data indicate seas are 7-8 ft in this region. A high pressure ridge extends across the northern waters, and a broad area of fresh SE winds was noted in earlier scatterometer data north of the Greater Antilles and east of 72W. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1036 mb high pressure centered north of the Azores is producing a tight pressure gradient and generating strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas north of 25N. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough that extends from the NW Bahamas to the Cayman Islands will begin moving eastward tonight and extend from 31N72W through the central Bahamas to eastern Cuba by Tue morning. Fresh to strong SE to S winds will continue E of this trough through Tue night, expanding northward toward 31N tonight and into Tue. A mid to upper-level trough is expected to enhance thunderstorm activity through mid-week east of the Bahamas and north of the Greater Antilles. A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight and extend from 31N74W to western Cuba by Tue morning, and from 31N67W to the central Bahamas to central Cuba by Wed morning. The front will stall by Wed and slowly weaken through the end of the week. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will prevail NW of the front Tue night through Thu morning. $$ B Reinhart