000 AXNT20 KNHC 181025 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Apr 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall from SE Bahamas southward to the Greater Antilles: A mid- to upper-level trough stretching from the Bahamas to the central Caribbean Sea is triggering scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms near portions of the SE Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, eastern Jamaica and adjacent Caribbean and Atlantic waters. Enhanced by favorable upper-level winds, periods of heavy rainfall are anticipated for these locations through Tue. There is potential for flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Looking further ahead, a robust mid- latitude trough digging southeastward from offshore the SE U.S. toward the Caribbean Sea will reinforce the mid-level trough and upper-level diffluence over this area during midweek. As a result, this rainy pattern could persist through Thu. East Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force N winds are expected to develop near the coast of Morocco Tuesday and persist through Wednesday, with seas building to 15 ft. Please see the latest forecast from Meteo-France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and extends to 03N23W. The ITCZ continues from 03N23W to 01S39W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-05N between 06W-17W and from 00N-05N between 27W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... An outflow boundary is producing scattered strong thunderstorms over the NE Gulf. These storms should weaken later this morning. A weak ridge extends east-west along 27N, maintaining light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft over the NE and E central Gulf. Moderate winds are over the Bay of Campeche with 3-4 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will pulse tonight along the NW Yucatan Peninsula waters associated with a diurnal trough. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf this morning, extend from Naples, FL to Brownsville, TX by early Tue, then stall across the southern Gulf late Tue through Wed. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow the front tonight into Tue. Meanwhile, patchy areas of smoke may reduce visibility across portions of the southwest Gulf of Mexico, south of 25N and west of 93W. Fresh to strong E winds are forecast late Wed into Fri near the Yucatan Peninsula, Florida Straits and southeast Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section for information on the potential for heavy rainfall over E Cuba and Hispaniola. A surface trough extends from the NW Bahamas to the Cayman Islands. A mid- to upper-level trough extends from the Bahamas to the central Caribbean. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is occurring over the north-central Caribbean Sea, north of 15N between 68W-76W, and north of 20N between 78W- 80W. Fresh to locally strong trades are over the E Caribbean east of 74W, where seas are 6-8 ft. Light to gentle winds with 2-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the mid to upper-level trough will continue to enhance heavy showers and thunderstorms across portions of the north-central Caribbean through Tue. Fresh trades over the eastern Caribbean will continue through Tue and then diminish as a surface trough over the Bahamas moves eastward. Looking ahead, a cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel by early Wed and stall there through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section for information on the heavy rainfall event affecting the SE Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. A surface trough extends from the NW Bahamas to the Cayman Islands. A mid to upper-level trough extends over the W Atlantic and Bahamas to the central Caribbean. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 20N-28N between 67.5W-76.5W. Additional thunderstorms are noted off the coast of northern Florida north of 29N between 78.5W-80W. Ridging is generally along 31N, leading to gentle S winds north of 29N and west of 60W, where seas are 3-5 ft. Fresh SE winds prevail east of the Bahamas and to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, where seas are 7-9 ft. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 27N42W to 25N33W. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail north of 27N and east of 45W, where seas are 8-12 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough extending from the NW Bahamas to the Cayman Islands will begin moving E by late tonight, extending from 31N75W through the central Bahamas to Jamaica. Fresh to strong SE to S winds will develop E of this trough late today through Tue and expand northward to 31N, as the axis of the trough drifts eastward. The mid to upper-level trough is expected to enhance thunderstorm activity through mid-week east of the Bahamas and north of the Greater Antilles. A cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast tonight will reach from 31N67W to the central Bahamas to central Cuba by early Wed. The front will then stall and begin to drift W Thu while weakening. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will prevail NW of the front Tue night through Thu. $$ Hagen