000 AXNT20 KNHC 172353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Apr 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall from SE Bahamas southward to Greater Antilles: A quasi-stationary mid-level low between E Cuba and the SE bahamas has induced a surface trough over the Windward Passage and nearby waters. These features together with a moist trade-wind flow are triggering scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms near the SE Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, and over E Cuba, Hispaniola and adjacent Caribbean waters. Enhanced by favorable upper-level winds, periods of heavy rainfall are anticipated for these locations through Tue. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally 4 to 6 inches are possible. This amount of rainfall has the potential to cause flash flooding and mudslides. Looking further ahead, a robust mid-latitude trough digging southeastward from offshore the SE U.S. toward the Caribbean Sea will reinforce the mid-level trough and upper-level diffluence over this area during midweek. As a result, this rainy pattern could persist through Thu. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Guinea-Sierra Leone border to 01N23W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring near and S of the trough over Sierra Leone, Liberia and Ivory Coast; and farther S from 02S to 05N between 07W and 22W. An ITCZ continues from 01N23W across EQ32W to near Parnaiba, Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is present near this feature from 01S to 04N between 23W and the Brazilian coast. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A modest surface ridge extends southwestward from N Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. This feature is maintaining light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft over the NE and E central Gulf. Gentle to moderate ESE to SSE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel and Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the surface ridge will persist through early Mon. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse during the evening and along the NW Yucatan Peninsula waters through Mon night associated with a diurnal trough. A cold front will move into the N Gulf early Mon, then stall across the S Gulf late Tue through Wed. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow the front. Meanwhile, patchy areas of smoke produced by agricultural fires may reduce visibility across portions of the Mexican offshore waters W of 95W and off S Texas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section for strong convection near Hispaniola and E Cuba. The gradient between high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic and a 1009 mb low over N Colombia is supporting NE to ESE trade winds over the entire basin. Moderate to fresh trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft are evident across the central and E basin. Gentle to moderate trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are in the SW basin. Light to gentle trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the NW basin. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge has retreated to the NE, and extends from the central Atlc SW to north Florida. The surface trough mentioned in the Special Features section is expected to connect to the low over N Colombia tonight through Tue night. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected across the N central and E Caribbean late tonight through Tue. Looking ahead, a cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel by early Wed and stall there through Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section for information on the heavy rainfall event affecting the SE Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. An occluded front curves southwestward from a 1016 mb low near 28N36W to 27N31W, then continues westward as a cold front across 23N40W to 28N50W. Clouds and patchy rain are found up to 50 nm N, and up to 80 nm S of this boundary. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and 9 to 13 ft seas in northerly swell are seen near the low, and N of the front from 26N to 31N between 34W and 45W. Further SW, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present from 10N to 26N between 40W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. To the E, moderate to fresh NE trades and 7 to 10 ft seas exist near the Canary Islands, N of 28N between the Sahara/Moroccan coast and 28W. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh E to SE trades S of 24N and E of the Bahamas will diminish Mon as high pressure well E of Bermuda shifts eastward. Meanwhile, a trough forming over the Bahamas this evening along 74W will shift W to along 76W-77W tonight through Mon. Fresh to strong S to SE winds will develop E of this trough Mon through Tue and expand northward to 31N, ahead of a cold front moving off the NE Florida coast by Mon night. The front will reach from Bermuda across the central Bahamas to central Cuba by Wed, then stall and begin to drift W and weaken Thu. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will prevail NW of the front. $$ Chan