000 AXNT20 KNHC 161745 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Apr 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential for Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola: Areas of strong convection, currently impacting the SE Bahamas, are expected to shift south and east tonight through Sunday. A co-located mid to upper low supporting the strong convection will drift south this weekend. Divergence aloft to the right of the upper trough axis and deep layer moisture will support periods of moderate to heavy rainfall over Hispaniola through Mon. Looking further ahead, the mid/upper low will be reinforced mid- week by a more amplified deep layer trough extending from the northern Bahamas through western Cuba. As a result, additional moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible through mid-week. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N13W and extends to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N to 05N between 10W and 17W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 05N between 17W and 27W, and from 01S to 01N west of 46W at the western end of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico. In the W Gulf, weak 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed at 21N97W near Tampico, Mexico. A surface trough extends from the low to 24N94W. Light to gentle E to SE winds prevail in the eastern Gulf, as indicated by the latest scatterometer data. Surface observations depict gentle to moderate SE winds in the western Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft in the W Gulf and 2-4 ft in the E Gulf. The latest visible and fire weather data from GOES-16 shows several weak agricultural fires underway across southern Mexico. While no smoke is evident over the SW Gulf/Bay of Campeche at this time, it is possible that smoke may drift over the waters as the fires continue to burn. For the forecast, the weak ridging will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin through late Sun. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf Mon, then stall across the southern Gulf through Tue. Fresh northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... The latest scatterometer pass shows moderate to fresh trades in the E and Central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate trades in the W Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Windward Passage. Seas are 4-7 ft in the E and Central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure located just SE of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through Sun morning. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel by Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Strong convection, driven by a mid/upper level trough, is currently from the northern coast of Cuba north to 24N over the SE Bahamas between 73W and 77W. Gusty winds are possible in the strongest thunderstorms. The strong convection is expected to shift south and east tonight through Sunday. Scattered showers are noted north of 24N between 68W and 74W. A surface trough is NE of the Bahamas from 27N77W to 30N74W. A shear line persists along 20N between 42W and 65W, with strong trades to 28 kt found poleward of the boundary according to the latest scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh trades prevail over the W Atlantic, except NW of the Bahamas where speeds diminish to gentle. Seas are 4-7 ft in the W Atlantic, except for a band of 7-9 ft seas from 16N to 24N between 44W and 71W. Farther east, a cold front enters the discussion waters at 31N33W, and continues to 29N40W then to 31N50W. The cold front is anchored to a low pressure SW of the Azores, which is anticipated to weaken and move south of 31N by tomorrow. The latest forecast from Meteo-France indicates the possibility of near-gale force winds south of 31N tomorrow. Moderate N to NE winds and 8-10 ft seas in N swell are noted north of the cold front. Elsewhere in open waters, seas are 4-7 ft with moderate to locally fresh trades. For the forecast west of 55W, the shear line will drift north and dissipate through today. Fresh to strong trade winds south of 24N and E of the Bahamas will diminish slightly Sun as high pressure southeast of Bermuda shifts east. Meanwhile, a trough will form along roughly 75W through the southern Bahamas Mon. Low pressure will form along this trough Mon night east of the central Bahamas, then shift northward Tue ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast by Mon night. The front will reach from Bermuda to western Cuba by mid week. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow the front. $$ Mahoney