000 AXNT20 KNHC 160903 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Apr 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0850 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 9.5N13W and extends to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 02N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 18W and 24W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak ridging extends from high pressure over the Carolina coast to eastern Texas. Farther south, a trough has formed off the west coast of Yucatan, supporting a coastal jet of fresh to strong E winds off the northern coast of the peninsula, with locally 4 to 6 ft seas. Elsewhere, the pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas over the eastern Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft seas over the western Gulf. Areas of smoke have been detected across the western Gulf, associated mainly with agricultural fires over southern Mexico. No other significant convection is evident at this time. For the forecast, the pattern will continue support gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin through late Sun. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf Mon, then stall across the southern Gulf through Tue. Fresh northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. Meanwhile areas of smoke inundate much of the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... An earlier scatterometer pass observed fresh to strong trade winds persisting off the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, due to the pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over northern South America. Seas are up to 10 ft south of 15N off Colombia. Fresh trade winds cover the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate trade winds are elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean with 3 to 5 ft seas. Meanwhile, a middle to upper level trough is supporting scattered showers across the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure located just SE of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through Sat night. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel by mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A short-wave, mid to upper level trough is digging into the area north of the northern Bahamas. This is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the central and southern Bahamas, as well as a surface trough along 74W, north of 22N. Weak ridging extends from 1025 mb high pressure near 32N59W westward along 30N toward 70W. A earlier scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong E winds over the southern Bahamas as well as over the approaches to the Windward Passage. Fresh E winds are are noted elsewhere south of 22N west of 45W, with 7 to 9 ft seas in E swell. This is along a weakening shearline extending from from 22N42W to 19N60W to 20N65W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft persist over open waters. Farther east, a cold front reaches from 31N35W to 30N40W to 31N48W. A recent ship observation confirmed fresh to strong N winds north of this front. Seas to 8 ft are likely following behind this front as well, part of a larger area of NW swell in excess of 8 ft over the waters north of 24N and east of 35W. Elsewhere south of 24N, moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted. For the forecast for the area west of 55W, the shearline along roughly 20N will drift north and dissipate through today. Fresh to strong trade winds south of 22N will diminish slightly Sun as high pressure southeast of Bermuda shifts east. Meanwhile, a trough will form along roughly 75W through the southern Bahamas Mon. Low pressure will form along this trough Mon night east of the central Bahamas, then shift northward Tue ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast by Mon night. The front will reach from Bermuda to western Cuba by mid week. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow the front. $$ Christensen