000 AXNT20 KNHC 160812 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Apr 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near 10N14W and extends to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 03N30W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 17W and 24W. GULF OF MEXICO... The stationary front that extended over the NE Gulf has lifted north of the area. Surface high pressure centered E of Bermuda continues to extend a ridge across great portions of Florida and into the northern Gulf of Mexico. This is supporting light to gentle variable winds in the NE basin noted in recent buoy observations and recent scatterometer data. Recent scatterometer data also found gentle to moderate return flow over the rest of the basin, except for fresh winds off the northern Yucatan peninsula. Seas are in the 2 to 4 ft over most of the basin, reaching up to 5 ft in the western Gulf. Otherwise, satellite imagery continues to reveal a large area of light to moderate density smoke covering mainly the western half of the Gulf to the Bay of Campeche, and portions of the Central Gulf. This smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico could reduce visibility, mainly in the W Gulf. For the forecast, a cold front will move into the northern Gulf Mon, then stall from the southeast Gulf to the South Texas coast through Tue. Fresh northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A recent scatterometer pass observed fresh to strong trade winds persisting off the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, due to the pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over northern South America. Seas are up to 10 ft south of 15N in the SW Caribbean. Fresh trade winds cover the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Fresh E winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate trade winds are elsewhere E of 80W with abating seas of 3 to 5 ft. Otherwise, a middle to upper level trough is supporting scattered showers across the Greater Antilles, including E Cuba, Hispaniola, and portions of Puerto Rico. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through Sat night then shift E of 75W on Sun. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel by mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Diffluence to the east of a middle to upper level trough is generating heavy showers and thunderstorms across the offshore waters south of 28N and west of 73W. A recent scatterometer pass noted fresh to locally strong E winds in the areas of convection. Moderate to fresh E winds are also noted north of the Caribbean Islands to 26N and west of 55W. North of 26N, gentle to moderate E winds are observed. Seas are 4 to 6 ft west of 55W with an area of 6 to 8 ft seas north of the Lesser Antilles. In the central Atlantic, a shear line extends from 28N36W to 20N50W to 21N63W. Fresh to strong winds are in the vicinity of the shear line from 19N to 23N between 45W and 65W. Elsewhere, a 1026 mb high pressure centered E of Bermuda supports fresh to locally strong E winds S of 25N and west of 35W. Moderate NE winds are noted between 18W and 35W. Scatterometer data noted strong NE winds surrounding the Canary Islands. 6 to 9 ft seas cover most of the Atlantic waters east of 55W. For the forecast west of 55W, the shearline will remain nearly stationary along 20N through tonight then begin to drift N and dissipate Sat. A band of fresh to strong NE to E winds, with seas to 9 ft will persist south of 24N through the upcoming weekend as a high pressure center remains in the vicinity of Bermuda. A stationary front off northeast Florida will dissipate through early Sat. An associated upper level trough across the NW waters will move E-SE through the weekend and support very active weather across the Bahamas ahead of it. A sharp trough is expected to develop from the Windward Passage northward across the SE Bahamas along 74W early Mon. Low pressure is expected to develop along the trough near 28N73W early Tue, shift N-NE and exit the region Tue night. $$ Christensen